Hawthorn vs Sydney AFL Rd 6 betting tips – Monday, April 25

Who will win this battle of the birds: the overperforming Hawks or the ever-unreliable Swans? It’s an interesting ANZAC Day clash in Launceston to help round out the sixth week of the 2022 AFL season.

The Hawks come into this game with their tails up. They fought out an epic Easter Monday clash against their old rivals Geelong, edging the Cats by 12 points in yet another cliffhanger. Hawthorn have surpassed early expectations with only one poor performance to their name, a 69-point thrashing at the hands of the Saints, who are flying. Their other loss was a one-pointer against the Blues, so there is a bit to like about their efforts under Sam Mitchell in 2022.

Gamblers do well to identify a reliable conveyance when they see one. The Swans are, historically, not a reliable conveyance, although perhaps we harbour a lasting bias from losses past. Sydney took their A-game to WA in round five, smashing the hapless West Coast by 63 points. The pressure was unrelenting, and the Eagles struggled to clear their defensive zone for most of the game. The Swans were without superstar Buddy Franklin, who will miss out again through injury.

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Key matchup: Hardwick vs Heeney

Sydney Swans forward Isaac Heeney is in great form, kicking three goals against the Eagles and laying six tackles. It was this type of pressure that made it impossible for West Coast to transition up the ground. Hawthorn defender Blake Hardwick racked up 18 possessions against the Cats, including 15 kicks. He averages a whopping 393 metres gained per match, but this might change with some Heeney-style pressure.

Hawthorn vs Sydney betting strategy

The Swans go in as favourites here, albeit with a skinny 10.5-point line. The Hawks are playing with heart and determination, and their best effort is pretty good. One area of deficiency that we have identified is the speed with which Hawks players move the ball. They seem to hesitate and look before slipping a handpass, while the super slick attacking sides know where they are going before taking possession. This failure might have been mitigated by the wet conditions against Geelong, but against a true pressure side like the Swans, they might be exposed. So, in the spirit of impartiality and forgiveness, we are tipping the Swans -10.5 in the hope that they can bring the defensive heat and turn the ball over here.

Hawthorn vs Sydney same-game multi

For value hunters, we are going to tie the Swans -10.5 into Isaac Heeney 2+ goals and Nick Blakey 20+ disposals. This will return a handsome $3.96 on Ladbrokes, and we are feeling extra bullish about this combination. It’s another long weekend filled with betting opportunities, so let’s enjoy it.