GWS vs Gold Coast AFL Rd 3 betting tips – Saturday, April 2

The winless GWS Giants face a tricky test against their fellow expansion side this Saturday as the Gold Coast Suns head to Sydney in round three of the 2022 AFL Premiership.

If sports betting were a true science, the Suns would be favourites here. They emerged from WA with four premiership points after beating a somewhat depleted Eagles side in round one and held the reigning premiers to 13 points in a close, hard-fought game in round two. They lack polish, as you would expect, but positive signs are evident. They’ve got some ball magnets in the midfield and, more importantly for a developing side, show real grit and determination under pressure.

GWS, on the other hand, are winless, having lost an ugly match to the Swans in round one and then been dismantled by a Richmond side lacking Dustin Martin, Jack Riewoldt, and Dion Prestia in round two. We tipped Richmond to beat the Giants and kept on betting when the markets wildly overreacted to Martin’s late withdrawal for personal reasons. Years of AFL betting experience has proven that a single player change very rarely has the power to swing a result. A higher price is always welcome.

But sports betting is not a science, and presumptions often trump form and results. The presumption is that GWS are the better footy side. They are listed at $20 to win the flag, while the Suns are over $100 with BetOnline. Sports betting will throw up the occasional opportunity to profit from incorrect market assumptions, and we need to decide if this is such a game. Do we take the Suns +8.5 and expect them to get close if not win in round three? Or do we trust to the wisdom of the masses and assume that GWS are just about to click into gear? These are the conundrums we face.

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Key matchup: Coniglio vs Fiorini

We go back to the timeless adage about midfield dominance being the best way to win a game of AFL. Hard ball needs to be won before attacking manoeuvres can commence. It’s impossible to demonstrate fluid ball movement and kicking accuracy without first winning the possession battle. We’re tipping Brayden Fiorini to have a big game after strong performances against West Coast and Melbourne. It will be interesting to see him match-up against Steven Coniglio, who looks to be getting back on track after a couple of tough years.

GWS vs Gold Coast predictions & best bets

This game should be viewed as a derby, with more on the line than a mere 4 premiership points. Bragging rights are also at play. GWS has proven the more successful of the newly added franchises, but we can expect a solid fight from the Suns. The bets of most appeal here are the Suns +8.5 and the Suns 1-39. Betting at the line is obviously the safer option, but if you’re feeling bullish, don’t be afraid to back the Suns to win a close encounter.

GWS vs Gold Coast AFL same-game multi

For value hunters, we suggest the Suns +8.5, into Brayden Fiorini to get 25+ disposals, into Levi Casboult as an anytime goalscorer. We are quite taken by young Fiorini; he knows how to find the ball and performed very well in round two against much stiffer opposition. This three-legged multi will return $4.60 on BetOnline.

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