Geelong v Melbourne AFL R15 tips & value bets – June 22, 2023

Geelong v Melbourne predictions & best bets

Round 15 of the 2023 AFL Premiership season kicks off on Thursday night as the Melbourne Demons take on the Geelong Cats down at GMHBA Stadium.

Last weekend Geelong travelled across to Adelaide, where they went down to the Power by 38 points. After an impressive first half, the Cats collapsed in the second, allowing Port Adelaide to get on multiple runs of unanswered goals. The Geelong midfield was once again soundly beaten by the Power, comfortably losing in key stats such as clearances and inside 50s.

The Cats now sit in 10th place on the AFL ladder and their finals chances are slipping away. After their success last season, Geelong have the hardest draw in the competition and now, after falling behind, they are going to need to take some big scalps in order to break into the finals positions.

Melbourne had the bye last weekend, but the week before, they took down the top-of-the-table Magpies by four points. In what was their toughest game of the season so far, the Demons were up for the fight, keeping Collingwood to just nine goals in a great defensive showing.

Prior to this win, there were doubts surrounding the Demons and their ability to compete with other top contenders. However, those concerns were put to rest and the Demons once again shape as one of the top contenders this season.

Prior to losing their last game at home, the Cats had won their last nine games in Geelong, as the unique shape of the ground regularly causes opposition teams to struggle. On form, the Demons would come into this game as heavy favourites, but the other factors in play make it harder to predict. Five out of six teams so far have lost coming off their bye, another factor that may affect the Demons in this one.

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Geelong v Melbourne AFL R15 betting strategy

While this is one of the toughest away trips in footy, the Melbourne Demons are deserving favourites. The Geelong key forwards have struggled of late, and now they come up against one of the best defences in the competition.

Geelong also lose captain Patrick Dangerfield to an injury sustained last week, while the Demons regain star midfielder Clayton Oliver. Expect the Cats midfield and defence to be overloaded as Melbourne salute at $1.85 with top AFL bookmakers.

With an expected dominance for the Demons in the midfield, there could be a lot of footy in the Geelong defensive half. That will only make it easier for Tom Stewart – one of the AFL’s leading intercept defenders – to rack up some numbers. Back him for 25 or more disposals at $2.05 with BetOnline.

If there is a focal point in the Melbourne forward line, it is Bailey Fritsch. Kicking multiple goals in all but two games this season, the mid-sized Fritsch is a headache for defenders as they struggle to match him both in the air and on the ground. Expect this good form to continue with two or more goals at $1.70.

Key matchup: Hawkins v May

Tom Hawkins vs Steven May

Now in his 17th season, Tom Hawkins remains one of the premier forwards in the AFL. Despite a quiet month with only five goals across the last four weeks, Hawkins still has the ability to win a match off his own boot. His size and experience regularly catch defenders out, something he will be hoping to take advantage of this week against one of the premier stoppers in the competition.

Steven May has been as consistent as ever this season while matching up on the oppositions best forward each week. A forward’s nightmare, May reads the ball better than most and regularly kills the contest before it has a chance to unfold. He is the leader of the Melbourne backline and a key reason why the Demons boast one of the best defences in the AFL.

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