Geelong v Brisbane betting tips & predictions | AFL Finals Week 3

Cats v Lions AFL betting picks

AFL Finals Week 3: Geelong v Brisbane preview

Geelong will start warm favourites in their preliminary final clash against Brisbane at the MCG on Saturday afternoon.

The Cats are priced at $1.75 to advance to the AFL grand final, with the Lions ($2.10) also receiving some support from punters. The Cats-Lions line has been set at a narrow 4.5 points.

The Cats come into this match well rested, after their dominant 84-point victory over Port Adelaide in the Qualifying Final two weeks ago. After a close first half, Chris Scott’s side took over in the second, kicking 11 goals to one and humiliating the Power on their own deck.

These sides have plenty of recent history in Preliminary Finals, facing each other twice over the past four seasons. On both occasions it was the Cats who secured the victory, while they have also won three of their past four clashes against the Lions.

Experienced campaigners in September, it is no surprise to see Geelong pushing for another premiership. Their mobile forward line has been a standout trait, but their midfield is undermanned and could be their weak spot.

The Cats are set to welcome back five-time All Australian Tom Stewart, however, experienced pair Tom Hawkins and Cam Guthrie have been ruled out. Key defender Sam De Koning is another potential inclusion, while the likes of Oisin Mullin, Zach Tuohy and Jed Bews are at risk of being dropped.

Brisbane have had a much more complicated path to the Preliminary Final after they beat GWS by five points last Saturday in Sydney. After a horrific first half, where they trailed by as much as 44 points, Chris Fagan’s men were able to turn it around, kicking 11 of the last 14 goals to secure an unlikely victory.

The only remaining team from outside the top four, Brisbane have now won back-to-back matches following their win over Carlton in finals week one. Then they proved they could win on the road in Sydney, but their record at the MCG is a different story, given they have won just two of their last 18 matches at the venue.

Don’t expect Chris Fagan to swing any changes this week after getting through the Giants match unscathed,

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Geelong v Brisbane preliminary final predictions

While Brisbane have won 12 of their last 14 matches, facing the Cats at the MCG is a formidable challenge. Geelong have been here so many times in recent years and their experience across every line will prove vital. The Cats spread of attacking options make them incredibly difficult to stop, so back them to win this clash at $1.75 with Bet365.

As the top-scoring small forward in the AFL with 46 goals this year, expect Geelong’s Tyson Stengle to play a key role in this clash. The 25-year-old kicked four against the Power and has kicked multiple majors on 14 occasions this season. With more than three goals in each of his past three finals matches, back Stengle to continue the trend at $3.60 with AFL bookmakers.

After a couple of quiet weeks, expect Brisbane midfielder Lachie Neale to play a pivotal role as he isn’t likely to receive a direct tag. He averages 29 disposals this season and has collected over 30 touches in 10 matches. The Lions have a much stronger midfield and Neale offers excellent value to collect 30 or more disposals at around $3.60 with online bookies.

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