EPL Matchweek 12 betting tips, top odds & value bets

Two of the English Premier League’s top five teams collide this weekend when Liverpool hosts Arsenal. We’ll take a closer look at that matchup and also make picks in the Leicester City vs Chelsea and Norwich City vs Southampton matches in our EPL betting picks for Matchweek 12.

Leicester City vs Chelsea

Leicester City (4-3-4) is having an underwhelming campaign to date, currently sitting in the bottom half of the EPL table after going 0-1-1 over its last two matches with a loss at home to Arsenal and a draw on the road against Leeds United. Leicester finished in fifth place in the standings both last year and the year before, but will have to sharpen up quite a bit to return to a top-five spot in 2021-22.

Chelsea (8-2-1) comes out of the international break with a three-point lead over Manchester City for the top spot on the English Premier League table. The club had a four-match winning streak snapped before the break in a 1-1 draw against Burnley. Leicester City always tends to play Chelsea tough, but the clear talent and form gap between these two clubs this season has us leaning towards the road team at a decent price in this one.

Norwich City vs Southampton

Norwich City (1-2-8) made its way into the win column for the first time this season in its last match with a 2-1 road upset over Brentford. Southampton (3-5-3) is also trending in the right direction with a 3-1-0 record over its last four matches since opening the season with an 0-4-3 record.

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Look for a low-scoring affair in this one. Norwich City has scored only five goals all season, and while it has conceded an ugly 26 goals in 11 matches, the club has more recently conceded one goal or less in three of its last five games. Southampton routinely produces low scores with only 10 goals scored and 12 goals conceded this year. Take the UNDER 2.5 goals.

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Liverpool (6-4-1) picked up its first loss of the season right before the break at the hand of West Ham United, allowing an uncharacteristic three goals in the 3-2 loss. Arsenal (6-2-3) kicked off the 2021-22 season with a disastrous 0-0-3 record, but is undefeated since with a 6-2-0 record over its last eight matches including a current three-match win streak.

We’re going to take a shot on Arsenal here. Yes, Liverpool is clearly the better team, and at home this should be a win for the Reds. But going off as a +570 underdog, Arsenal only needs to win in this spot around 16% of the time to make this a profitable bet long-term. Given the team’s current form, we believe this upset happens often enough to take a shot.