Covington vs Masvidal main event tips & fight odds – UFC 272

Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal clash in the main event of UFC 272 this Sunday (AEDT) in Las Vegas. The two used to be teammates but have become hated rivals since, setting the stage for this highly anticipated welterweight bout.

Covington vs Masvidal main event preview

Colby Covington (16-3-0) has established himself as the best welterweight in the world that isn’t named Kamaru Usman. Covington was given a second shot at Usman in November after having been knocked out by the UFC Welterweight Champion at UFC 245, and this time around he lost via decision. The 34-year-old is a perfect 8-0-0 in his last fight against opponents other than Usman, using his elite grappling abilities to smother his opponents on the ground.

Jorge Masvidal (35-15-0) was one of the UFC’s hottest fighters in 2019, scoring three straight knockout wins that year including the fastest knockout in UFC history in his five-second flying knee win over Ben Askren and a technical knockout win over Nate Diaz for the symbolic ‘BMF’ title. Masvidal stepped in on short notice to fight Usman for the welterweight title at UFC 251 and was dominated in a decision loss. He got another chance with a normal camp last April and was promptly knocked out in the second round.

Covington vs Masvidal fight analysis & predictions

So we know that these two top-five welterweights can’t beat Kamaru Usman, but how will they fare against each other? In theory, this has the potential to be an intriguing fight between two fighters with very contrasting styles. Jorge Masvidal will have the advantage when these two fighters are standing up and striking, while Colby Covington will have the advantage on the ground. Masvidal’s best shot at an upset will come if Covington gets too cocky and tries to beat Masvidal at his own game in the striking department.

That probably isn’t going to be the case, though. Both of these fighter desperately need a win after having their stocks dropped by two losses apiece to Usman. So we can expect to see both men’s best effort, and that’s a fight that favors Covington. Masvidal’s last five wins have come by knockout; he’s always a threat to steal a fight with a well-timed strike. But Covington has a rock-solid chin with only one knockout loss in his career and is far more likely to be the one to control the tempo of the fight with his ground game than Masvidal is.

Look for Masvidal to land a nice shot or two along the way, but this should mostly be a methodical win for Covington.