Collingwood v St Kilda AFL betting tips & best odds – 16/4/2023

In the final match of the inaugural ‘Gather Round’, Adelaide Oval plays host to a highly anticipated clash between the Collingwood Magpies and the St Kilda Saints, in what could be the match of the round.

The Magpies last week copped their first loss of the season as they travelled up to the Gabba, going down to the Brisbane Lions by 33 points. In Collingwood’s first game outside the MCG this season, the Lions kicked away in the second quarter and didn’t look back.

The loss of all noted ruckmen through injury proved to be a major factor in their loss, as the makeshift team of Dan McStay and Billy Frampton was no match for Oscar McInerney. Collingwood comfortably lost both the hitouts and clearances, and that part of the game will once again will prove a challenge this week against the Saints.

Continuing on his exceptional form, Nick Daicos once again proved himself as a star of the competition, with 38 disposals and two goals. Many doubted whether he would be able to continue to improve at the same rate that he showed during his rookie season, but those doubts have been put to rest as he pushes himself into early favouritism for the Brownlow Medal.

St Kilda, on the other hand, continued their great form with a comfortable win over the Gold Coast Suns by 53 points. The Saints have been the biggest surprise package of the year so far, remaining undefeated while beating multiple finalists from 2022. Returning coach Ross Lyon has implemented his renowned defensive style to great effect, with the Saints conceding the least number of points in the competition.

This defensive effort has also come at no expense to St Kilda’s ability to kick winning scores, despite a plethora of injuries particularly affecting the forward line. Much of the discussion throughout the preseason was regarding the injuries to key forwards Max King and Tim Membrey, who had been the major scoring avenues for the team in years past. Yet their absence has barely been noticed, as a makeshift forward line of smaller, more agile players has provided a tough challenge to opponents each week.

ALSO: GWS Giants v Hawthorn match preview & best bets – Round 5, 2023

Two players who have provided real spark for the Saints this season have been former Tiger Jack Higgins and 19-year-old Michito Owens. In the last two weeks, Higgins has kicked nine goals, providing the primary option and showing a polished product of the form that has been seen in seasons past. Owens has emerged as a future star of the competition, playing as a mid-sized forward. Last week he gathered 27 disposals and two goals, earning himself the Rising Star nomination.

The conditions for the game on Sunday are expected to be wet, and on a ground that will have hosted five games across the three days previously, this could prove to be a scrappy affair. Both teams are limited on their tall options and, as such, both will be suited to the conditions of fast ball movement, which could prove to be a territory battle. These conditions, combined with the Saints’ defensive game style, would suggest that this game should go under 161.5 points ($1.88).

A tight, contested game provides the perfect opportunity for an experienced player such as Scott Pendlebury to stand up. In his 18th season, the 35-year-old has barely missed a beat, averaging over 24 disposals while continuing to play key minutes in a star-studded midfield. With these conditions, it would not be surprising to see Pendlebury gather 25 disposals or more this weekend ($1.95).

Although undefeated, the Saints are still yet to face a premiership contender, and this week provides the perfect opportunity to prove that they are a legitimate threat in 2023. Recent history favours Collingwood, however, as they have won four out of their last five meetings with St Kilda. Despite suffering a loss last week, the Pies would be expected to bounce back this week and are backed as favourites at $1.44.

Key matchup: Josh Daicos v Mason Wood

Josh Daicos vs Mason Wood

Despite the constant media attention surrounding his brother Nick, Josh Daicos has emerged as one of the premier wingmen in the competition. Averaging a career-high in disposals, he is extremely damaging with his carry and distribution across the ground. After being a first-time member of the All-Australian 40-man squad in 2022, he would be seeking to continue his form of 2023 so far.

Mason Wood has emerged as one of the major redemption stories for St Kilda in 2023. Having moved across from North Melbourne in 2021, he initially struggled for a spot in the team. However, this season he has proven to be one of their most important players. Averaging career-highs in almost every statistical category, his work on the wing has provided a headache for opposition teams, through not only his ball use on the wing, but also his scoreboard impact.

This game will be calling for an X-factor player to break the game open and these two players possess the ability to do so.

Collingwood v St Kilda Rd 5 betting prediction

Magpies v Saints AFL same game multi tips

More sports betting tips

1 Comment

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Davo

1 year ago

On a wet track, the Pies midfield should have this.

0