Collingwood v Essendon AFL tips, odds & multi – ANZAC Day 2023

One of the AFL’s great traditions, the ANZAC Day game, continues as the Collingwood Magpies meet the Essendon Bombers at the MCG on Tuesday. The Pies are back on the winners’ list after beating the Saints in a thriller, while the Bombers continued their hot run of form by handling premiership fancies Melbourne.

Essendon have left the baggage of the preseason in the rearview mirror to the start the season. Many pundits thought list issues and some off-field concerns would see the Bombers fall down to the tail end of the ladder, but Brad Scott has his men playing a brand of football that has them out to a 4-1 record.

Sure, you can make the argument that prior to last week this Essendon Bombers side hadn’t faced a real challenger for this year’s premiership. That was until they put the clamps on Melbourne and ran all over them at Adelaide Oval.

However, they will be put to the test once more on ANZAC Day in a game that is bigger than the footy itself. The Bombers will have to access their best footy if they are to beat a team that is also 4-1.

Outside of a bad loss at the Gabba against Brisbane, Collingwood have been on fire and are arguably premiership favourites at this stage in the competition. Their movement from half-back to their forward 50 is electric, precise, and will cut any team up.

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The Pies, through their young Brownlow Medal fancy Nick Daicos, will use the vast spaces of the MCG to utilise this weapon and run all over the Bombers going forward. That’s not to say the Bombers can’t play at the level and turn the game into a scrap; it’s just that the Pies are playing at a level that far surpasses most teams in the competition, Essendon included. Look for the Pies to extend their ANZAC Day record to 17-10 after Tuesday ($1.49).

One thing the Bombers have on their side is that they have some big-game players. Darcy Parish is ‘the’ guy when it comes to ANZAC Day every year – a player who can be a game changer, and one Essendon will be relying on if they want to secure victory.

In 2021, for instance, Parish was adjudicated best on ground for this match with 42 disposals and two goals, only for him to back it up and nearly get his team over the line with 44 disposals a year later. However, his job will be made harder without running mate Zach Merrett, who is out due to suspension, but that will only spur Parish to amp up his game more. Expect Parish to get high numbers this game with a minimum of 30 disposals ($1.42).

Jack Ginnivan was a welcomed return for Collingwood last week after his much publicised off-field drama. But all that is behind him, and now he can get back to his cheeky best.

Ginnivan is a player that, for some reason, can rub the opposition the wrong way, and that can be more impactful in big games such as this where emotions run very high. Add in the fact he kicked five goals in what was a best-on-ground performance in last year’s ANZAC Day game, and Ginnivan is going to have some kind of impact. A big game, a big-game player who rubs opposition players the wrong way, and someone who feels he owes the club -expect Ginnivan to kick at least two ($2).

Key matchup: Nick Daicos vs Nic Martin

Nick Daicos vs Nic Martin

Originally titled ‘Nick Daicos and the poor player that has to man him up’, it was very hard to target a player that will be his direct matchup for Tuesday. It’s weird when you have to tag a half-back flanker, but the way this kid is playing, you would have to be an incredibly ignorant coach if to allow him space. Daicos starred with 42 disposals and over 800 metres gained in last week’s win, but he has been doing this all season so far.

How do you stop him? Well, you have to shut down his supply, which can be done by making a forward accountable for him. Brad Scott – who in the past at North Melbourne was prone to playing a tagger to shut down a side’s best player – will look for one of his players to take the challenge. Nic Martin could very well be that player.

Martin and Daicos’ careers have run against one another so far: one was a high draft pick and the other unlikely to be there; both debuted in spectacular ways; and one narrowly missed out on the Rising Star award, losing out to the other. Martin could have a point to prove, and shutting down Daicos would not only be a victory for himself, but could also lead to a victory for his team.

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