Casboult or Cloke in goal betting for Collingwood vs. Carlton?

Saturday, July 2, 2016 from 7.25pm AEST at MCG.

Ladder position:
Carlton Blues: 13th
Collingwood Magpies: 14th

Season record:
Carlton Blues: 6-7
Collingwood Magpies: 5-8

Last five match results:
Carlton Blues: LWWLL
Collingwood Magpies: WLLLW

Head-to-head odds:
Carlton Blues: $2.10 with CrownBet.com.au
Collingwood Magpies: $1.74 with CrownBet.com.au

Line betting:
Carlton Blues: +3.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)
Collingwood Magpies: -3.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)

TWO of the AFL’s goliath full forwards will go head to head in the clash of old enemies.

Collingwood’s Travis Cloke and Carlton’s Levi Casboult might just be the two worst kicks for goal among key forwards in the game.

It’s an intriguing proposition.

While Cloke is no certainty to play because, frankly, it appears Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley has given up on him, the big forward would be very stiff to go out after last week’s performance.

Against Fremantle, he booted the first goal of the game and took seven marks in conditions that didn’t exactly suit a big key forward.

He ended up with 2.2 with a couple of tackles and had 14 touches. He worked hard, got on his bike and played a key role in the Pies’ 48 point win, 12.13 (85) to 5.7 (37).

With youngster Darcy Moore waiting in the wings to return from his collarbone injury, one of Cloke or Jesse White has to make way.

Nathan Buckley was giving nothing away after the game, but he did give Cloke the thumbs up.

“In the last part, Clokey and Jesse White in particular were two forwards who found a little bit extra for that first 15 minutes of the last quarter to stabilise the game,” Buckley said.

“It was encouraging for him. It was a step in the right direction.”

Buckley said Moore was making a push to be picked for the game against the Blues.

So, he has to get picked first, but we love big Clokey for the first goal of the game if he does, at $9 with Sportsbet.com.au.

If he doesn’t, well, that might spell the end of his career at Collingwood. If the game hasn’t passed him by, then there will surely be a few potential suitors at the end of the season willing to take a punt on the power forward who once used to rip apart a game with his bare hands.

Big Casboult went goal less for the Blues against Greater Western Sydney last week, but he didn’t get many opportunities as the Giants thumped them by 10 goals, 18.19 (127) to 9.11 (65).

Casboult, like Cloke, did, however, take seven marks to go along with 12 disposals, so the Blues would not be entirely dissatisfied with his performance.

He has a pig of a kicking style, but had actually been somewhat accurate in the three weeks before.

He booted three goals straight against St Kilda and 2.1 in the two weeks before.

So perhaps we can have a little more confidence in his set shot these days – even if it is about as graceful as a hippo on roller blades – and back him in for the first goal at $10.

It’s hard not to like Casboult. He has a crack, might be one of the best contested marks in the game, but he has a fatal flaw that shows he is a human. If he wasn’t a Blue, you’d probably give him a chance.

Looking outside the two behemoths, another Collingwood tower has been in solid goal kicking form.

The US recruit Mason Cox is one of the stories of the season. He should play like an Auskicker, given that he never saw a football until a couple of years ago, but he is really more like a seasoned veteran, booting two goals in each of the past three weeks, rotating through the ruck and forward line.

He never finds a ton of it, but his goal kicking chops are undeniable and we think the $9 is solid for him to slot the first.

We’ve gone for a bit of value on the Carlton side of things and we think midfielder Sam Kerridge could be the man to bust the game open.

He started the season in a blaze of glory and he has been up and down since, but there is no denying his pace and running capacity.

He is yet to kick a goal during the by rounds, so opening up with one against the Pies would do his reputation no harm among Blues supporters. He is $23 to do it, if you like an outsider.

First goal scorer market:

Travis Cloke ($9)
Andrejs Everitt ($9)
Mason Cox ($9)
Levi Casboult ($10)
Andrew Walker ($12)
Jesse White ($12)
James Aish ($15)
Matthew Wright ($15)
Jed Lamb ($15)
Travis Varcoe ($17)
Steele Sidebottom ($17)
Jason Tutt ($21)
Simon White ($21)
Jordan de Goey ($21)
Sam Kerridge ($23)
Jarryd Blair ($23)
Liam Sumner ($26)
Adam Treloar ($26)
Brodie Grundy ($26)
Bryce Gibbs ($26)
Levi Greenwood ($29)
Scott Pendlebury ($29)
Dale Thomas ($29)
Brayden Maynard ($34)
Jack Crisp ($34)
Matthew Kreuzer ($34)
Tom Phillips ($34)
Ed Curnow ($34)
Patrick Cripps ($36)
Sam Rowe ($41)

Odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au

Match predictions

Match result: Collingwood Magpies to win ($1.74 with Crownbet.com.au)
Line betting: Collingwood Magpies -3.5 ($1.92 with sportsbet.com.au)

Form goes out the window when Carlton and Collingwood square off, but the Blues have a little bit of early season history on their side, having won the last clash between these two teams in seven. But times have changed a bit and the Pies, now beginning to get healthy, looked like they have turned the corner slightly. The Blues have been hurt by injuries to skipper Marc Murphy, but Bryce Gibbs will be a key figure in this one. Perhaps he has finally become an elite midfielder. He had 36 disposals against the Pies in round seven and is coming off 29 in the losing effort against GWS. We think this will be a tight game, but the Pies, led by captain Scott Pendlebury and boom recruit Adam Treloar, should be just good enough to get the job done against a depleted Blues outfit.