Carlton v St Kilda AFL Rd 6 betting tips & odds – April 23, 2023

It’s first playing fourth this Sunday afternoon as Carlton venture to Marvel Stadium to take on a red-hot St Kilda side in round six of the 2023 AFL Premiership. The Blues escaped South Australia feeling very sore and sorry for themselves after the devastating loss to the Crows, while the Saints also left Adelaide with a loss – albeit a nail-biter against the Pies.

You have to cast your mind back to the mid to late ’90s to recall a match between these two teams being arguably the most fascinating contest of the round. Very rarely are both these teams on the right track at the same time, but they are now and it’s fantastic to see.

The Saints look the more impressive of the two. They weren’t even considered to be around the mark at all this year, especially given that their list is shattered by injury after injury. But Ross Lyon has them playing ‘Ross Ball’, and apart from a tight loss last week, it was hard to see who would be the one to bring them down.

The Blues, on the other hand, were considered to be top eight at a minimum this year, but they haven’t looked as impressive. Sure, they have only lost once and currently sit fourth on the ladder, but their victories haven’t been all that imposing and they got completely belted by Adelaide. Michael Voss will be poring over the footage of the first quarter trying to figure out why Adelaide piled on eight goals, but the answer is simple: they were simply outhunted when it came to gathering the footy.

This one is very hard to predict. On the one hand, Carlton on paper look a much stronger team and you know they will look to bounce back from last week. On the other hand, St Kilda are absolutely buzzing, healthy or not.

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If you were to flip a coin, then you would most likely want it to land the Saints side up, such is their current form. Lyon will have tactics prepared for his team, and with the Saints young guns playing to the best of their ability, it’s hard to ignore their price at $2.10 with Marantelli Bet.

What will definitely be hard to ignore is the return of Sam Walsh for Carlton. Sure, he returned last week, but this week it will be in front of a home crowd who have been dying to see him play for so long.

If he isn’t one already, Walsh is a genuine superstar in the making such is his ability to find the ball and be damaging by hand or by foot. He just adds an extra layer to what is already a stacked midfield. The Blues will stop at nothing to prove themselves against the best, and Walsh will lead the charge. Look for him to rack up possessions and, at a minimum, find the footy at least 25 times ($1.37).

The Saints have lost another player, but this time through suspension, with Anthony Caminiti copping a three-week ban for his altercation with Nathan Murphy. Now the Saints are down to almost no key forwards, which means they will rely on the small brigade to do the bulk of their scoring. This isn’t a bad thing, as their smalls have been running amok inside the forward 50 to open the season.

Even better for the Saints is that Carlton play a very tall lineup, meaning St Kilda will be looking to expose the speed aspect and hit targets inside 50. One player that will benefit from this is the excitable Jack Higgins, who is known for his plucky brand of football and his nous for kicking goals. Fully expect to see the Saints use Higgins as their main avenue to goal, and for him to kick at least two majors ($1.80).

Key matchup: Dougal Howard v Charlie Curnow

Dougal Howard vs Charlie Curnow

It must be the worst week of your life if you are a tall defender and know that you will have to be playing on Charlie Curnow or partner-in-crime Harry McKay. Curnow, in particular, is the key spoke in the wheel for opposition teams’ plans of winning a game, such is the 2022 Coleman Medal winner’s impact on a game. There is no doubt that this game will be decided on whether or not Curnow can get his hands on the ball.

The player tasked to prevent this will be Dougal Howard. He may not have the athletic capability of a Curnow, but Howard wins most duels using his strength and high footy IQ. He will need to access the most of these attributes this weekend, especially given what it could mean for the result of the game.

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