Carlton v Melbourne AFL R12 tips & value bets – June 2, 2023

Carlton v Melbourne R12 predictions & best bets

Carlton v Melbourne AFL match preview

This Friday night, the Carlton Blues face off against premiership contenders Melbourne at the MCG. With both teams coming into this game on losing streaks, the pressure is on to get a win and ease the external noise.

Last week, the Blues continued on with their poor form of late, going down to the Sydney Swans by 26 points. A game where momentum shifted throughout, Carlton had many periods of dominance but were unable to capitalise due to poor kicking around the ground and for goal.

On top of this, injuries to five Carlton players compounded the misery. Now the Blues have lost six of their last seven matches, falling to 13th on the ladder and facing an uphill battle to make the top eight.

The Melbourne Demons suffered the same fate on the weekend as they fell to the Fremantle Dockers by seven points. Many lead changes occurred throughout the match, but a 15-point deficit at three-quarter-time proved to be too much for the Dees overcome.

In the absence of star midfielder Clayton Oliver due to injury, Christian Petracca stood up for the Demons with 30 disposals in a best-on-ground performance in a losing side. Melbourne have now lost two in a row and cracks are starting to appear after their strong start to the season.

Even so, the Demons come into this game as rightful favourites against an extremely underwhelming opposition. The Blues have clear worries across their team, but none more so than their forward line.

Across the last three weeks, Carlton have averaged only 55 points per game. With the past two Coleman Medal winners filling their key forward posts, this form is inexplicable and raises issues surrounding their confidence around the goals.

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Against one of the best defensive teams in the competition, it is hard to see where a change in form will come from for Carlton. At $1.34 with Marantelli Bet, Melbourne should win this as the Blues struggle again in attack.

A key problem for Carlton so far this season has been their kicking efficiency inside 50. Many of their key ball-winners in the middle are not the greatest ball-users, and so there are many times where good opportunities are wasted through poor disposal.

The one current exception is Adam Cerra. Averaging 27 disposals per game this season, the young midfielder also ranks second at the club for score involvements.

In a week where the Carlton attack has come under major pressure, expect the Blues to look to Cerra for quality entries inside 50. Back him for 25 or more disposals at $1.50 with the top AFL bookmakers.

The top offensive team in the competition, the Demons have a variety of options going forward, as they run a very fluid system. Since coming into the team in round three, Jacob van Rooyen has been a key part of this system, kicking at least one goal in each game he has played.

With the Carlton defence being struck down by a couple of injuries last weekend, expect van Rooyen to get many opportunities to outsize his defender. Look for him to kick two or more goals at $2.25 with Neds.

Key matchup: Cripps v Petracca

Patrick Cripps vs Christian Petracca

In a week where he has received a lot of criticism in the media, expect Carlton captain Patrick Cripps to put on a big performance on Friday night. One of the top contested and clearance players in the AFL, Cripps will have a major impact getting the ball forward out of the middle. A prime Cripps also regularly hits the scoreboard, and having only kicked one goal so far this season, a bit of scoring impact from him will go a long way in an underperforming forward line.

Christian Petracca is the bull of the Melbourne midfield and a matchup nightmare for any opposing team. Not only is his size an issue, but also his speed and athleticism, as he combines a key contested player into a running threat across the ground that also hits the scoreboard. Without Clayton Oliver, greater responsibility falls on Petracca’s shoulders, and with the Demons in need of a win, expect Petracca to lift once again.

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