Broncos v Warriors betting tips & predictions | NRL finals 23/9

Brisbane vs New Zealand NRL best bets

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Broncos vs Warriors preliminary final preview

New Zealand Warriors face the tough task of beating Brisbane Broncos in NRL preliminary final action on Saturday.

One of these teams will reach the NRL grand final and play the winner of Penrith and the Melbourne Storm, who are contesting the other preliminary final.

The Broncos are a $1.26 favourite to win this clash, with the Warriors outsiders at $3.90 with online bookmakers.

Two weeks ago, the Broncos faced the Melbourne Storm, winning comfortably 26-0 to earn themselves a week off. After the Broncos scored early, the next 40 minutes were an arm-wrestle as neither side could hit the scoreboard. Three tries after the 50th minute saw the Broncos capture an excellent shut out win.

After sitting in the top two for most of the season, the Broncos will be looking to make the most of their home field advantage as they play in front of a sold-out crowd at Suncorp Stadium.

The Warriors hosted their first finals game since 2008 on Saturday as they thrashed the Newcastle Knights 40-10. Scoring a try in the first minute of the match, the Warriors came out strong with two more tries before the 11th minute. A pair of Newcastle tries each side of half-time brought them back into the match before the Warriors put the foot down as they scored the last four tries of the match.

After a disappointing effort against the Panthers in the first week of finals, the Warriors now face another tough trip to Australia where they will be hoping to build upon their showing against the Knights.

Both sides come into this matchup unchanged, keeping consistency from their previous wins.

Broncos vs Warriors betting strategy

After winning their last five matches at Suncorp (excluding round 27 where they rested most of their squad), the Broncos will be looking to capitalise on their strong home form. Coming in at full strength, the Broncos have quality across the field with many players who can break the game open.

With the Warriors fairy tale run in 2023 it’s easy to get caught up in their last performance. But we are expecting their deep run in the finals to end here, as their quality doesn’t match up to that of the Broncos. Showing minimal value at $1.27, we are taking the Broncos at the line of -10.5 paying $1.90 at the top NRL bookmakers.

After showing their defensive qualities against the Storm, look for the Broncos to keep offensive opportunities to a minimum once again. With four of the six finals matches going under the total points margin so far in 2023, it is clear that sides are prioritising defence in order to keep themselves in matches. We are backing this match to have under 42.5 total match points at $1.90.

Looking at try-scorers for the Broncos in this one, they possess quality across the backline, but a standout player across the last few weeks has been centre Herbie Farnworth. Despite not scoring in his last two games, Farnworth has led the backline in run metres and tackle breaks showing he is always a danger. We are backing him in to score in this one at $2.40 with Palmerbet.

Key Matchup: Walsh v Nicoll-Klokstad

Reece Walsh vs Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

Having an excellent season for the Broncos, fullback Reece Walsh seems to be at the centre of nearly all their attacking plays. With four tries and four try assists in the last month Walsh is always a danger of creating an opportunity.

With over 300 run metres, a try and a try assist last weekend Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad was everywhere for the Warriors against the Knights. Always reliable down back, CNK never puts in a bad performance as he is tasked with more carries than anyone else in the side.

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