Brisbane v Collingwood AFL R3 betting tips | Thursday, March 28

Lions v Magpies AFL R3 best bets

Brisbane v Collingwood match preview

Round three kicks off on Thursday night with a 2023 AFL Grand Final rematch as the Brisbane Lions host Collingwood at the Gabba with both sides still seeking their first win of the season.

Brisbane had a bye in round two after slumping to 0-2 with losses to Carlton and Fremantle. They have struggled to convert scoring opportunities this season, ranking fourth for inside 50s generated but only kicking an average of 77 points in their opening fixtures. In contrast, the Lions were the second-highest-scoring AFL side in 2023 with over 13 goals per game on average.

New recruit Tom Doedee was poised to make his first AFL appearance for the Lions before tearing an ACL in training this week. Brisbane will also be missing Conor McKenna due to a hamstring injury, with Jaxon Prior and the untested Shadeau Brain both in the mix after impressive VFL performances last week. In much better news for the Lions, Brownlow Medal winner Lachie Neale is set to return from a minor hamstring issue that kept him out of the loss to Fremantle.

The Collingwood Magpies have lost their edge in 2024, dropping three straight games. They rank 13th for inside 50s, 14th for goals, 14th for disposals, and 10th for clearances, so it is hard to argue they have been unlucky. Fans will be hoping the AFL premiers can flick the switch, but this is easier said than done.

The Pies have been fielding a near-full-strength side this campaign, and talk has centred on whether struggling veterans such as Steele Sidebottom and Mason Cox should keep their spots. Harvey Harrison might be ready for a call-up from Collingwood’s VFL squad to apply much-needed forward pressure after he finished with 19 disposals and a goal in his latest appearance. John Noble is another name on the potential call-up list after ending with 29 disposals from the same VFL match.

Brisbane Lions v Collingwood Magpies betting strategy

Brisbane will be confident back on home turf, but this should be a competitive fixture that is settled by two or three goals at the most. With both teams under pressure, we may witness a tight and defensive strategy that stymies free-flowing ball movement and big totals. Back the Lions to win it by 39 points or less at +105 with Neds.

Collingwood midfielder Jordan De Goey is a confidence player who produces his best performances when he can get an early feel for the contest. He is at his most damaging when he chooses to run the ball, putting opposition players in two minds. If he can burst out of the centre with the Sherrin, he might stride into goal-kicking range and slot a six-pointer or two.

Both teams have struggled defensively this campaign, so expect them to throw numbers behind the ball. This should restrict scoring opportunities and leave us with an arm-wrestle. The Lions have been known for booting big totals in recent years, but until they can recapture that kind of form, we are happy to bet the unders in total points markets.

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