Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants AFL R11 betting tips – 29/5/2021

The rampaging Brisbane Lions will be looking to notch their seventh win on the bounce when they host the in-form GWS Giants at the Gabba on Saturday in round 11 of the 2021 AFL Premiership season.

Chris Fagan and the Lions are set to play consecutive games at the Gabba against potential finals opponents. Having beaten Richmond convincingly last weekend, Brisbane will be confident they can dispose of the Giants.

GWS will head north with a fair bit of confidence after putting in a strong four-quarter performance against West Coast to claim their fifth win in seven matches. The Giants are missing several key players, however, with star defender Sam Taylor (ankle) the latest casualty.

AFL bookmakers have the Brisbane Lions as hot favourites at $1.22, while the Giants are rank outsiders at $4.80 despite their strong form.

Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants match analysis

Both of these teams began the season with a 1-3 ledger, but the Brisbane Lions have gone on from there to become genuine premiership contenders. The Lions have won six in a row, defeating the likes of Port Adelaide and Richmond along the way. Eric Hipwood and Zac Bailey kicked eight goals between them against the Tigers, so the GWS defence will have to worry about a lot more than just Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron.

The Giants, on the other hand, were thoroughly impressive all around the ground against the more-fancied West Coast, with the likes of Callan Ward, Jacob Hopper, Tom Green and Jeremy Finlayson leading the way. Shane Mumford has been a barometer for GWS this season, with the club winning all five matches the veteran ruckman has played in. Mummy formed a formidable duo with young ruck Matt Flynn last weekend, and that combination could be the key for the Giants on Saturday night.

BrisbaneLions

• Jaxon Prior
• Harris Andrews
• Brandon Starcevich
• Daniel Rich
• Marcus Adams
• Grant Birchall
• Dayne Zorko
• Zac Bailey
• Hugh McCluggage
• Callum Ah Chee
• Joe Daniher
• Lincoln McCarthy
• Daniel McStay
• Eric Hipwood
• Charlie Cameron
• Oscar McInerney
• Jarryd Lyons
• Mitch Robinson
• Deven Robertson
• Keidean Coleman
• Rhys Mathieson
• James Madden
• Thomas Berry (Emg)
• Tom Fullarton (Emg)
• Tom Joyce (Emg)
• Connor Ballenden (Emg)
• Coach: Chris Fagan

GWSGiants

• Harry Himmelberg
• Zach Sproule
• Matthew Flynn
• Xavier O’Halloran
• Jeremy Finlayson
• Bobby Hill
• Lachie Whitfield
• Callan Ward
• Josh Kelly
• Lachie Ash
• Isaac Cumming
• Matt Buntine
• Connor Idun
• Nick Haynes
• Jack Buckley
• Shane Mumford
• Tim Taranto
• Jacob Hopper
• Sam Reid
• Jake Riccardi
• Tom Green
• Daniel Lloyd
• Kieren Briggs (Emg)
• Callum Brown (Emg)
• Nick Shipley (Emg)
• Tanner Bruhn (Emg)
• Coach: Leon Cameron

Key matchup: Zac Bailey vs Tom Green

Prior to this year, both Zac Bailey and Tom Green were hardly household names. Now, almost halfway through the season, they are arguably two of the most influential players in this matchup. Both forged a junior career predominately in the midfield, but it is their forward craft over the past month or two that has taken them to the next level. Green is now a $2.50 favourite to take out the 2021 Rising Star award, whilst Bailey comes into this clash off a career-high four goals against Richmond and will take some minding.

Brisbane Lions vs GWS Giants betting predictions

GWS Giants +29.5

The Giants head to the Gabba as rank outsiders, but if they bring the same four-quarter performance they put in against West Coast last week, then a match line of near five goals is one to dip in to. Brisbane have not been putting away finals-bound teams as easily as everyone thinks they should, and despite the Giants’ massive injury list, we expect the newest team in the competition to put up a good fight.

Eric Hipwood to kick 3+ goals

It is easy to say that Eric Hipwood is in career-best form, but he is one of the few Lions who can kick straight at the moment. He has 21.9 to begin 2021 and is coming off a four-goal performance against Richmond, a team he has usually struggled against. Hipwood has two hauls of three goals and two hauls of four goals so far this season. Against an undermanned Giants backline with no Phil Davis, Lachie Keeffe or Sam Taylor, Hipwood may just get off the leash.

Same game multi: 3 legs @ $10.70

Five of the last six daytime games between these two sides have covered the over for total points. With the line set at 165.5 points for this match, the over looks the smart bet in what is set to be a high-scoring affair. Eric Hipwood will shoot truly when he gets the chance, but the Lions will struggle to overcome the Giants’ hefty head-start.