Betting tips for Australia & Shane Watson, T20 World Cup opener

Match 17 – 3:00pm local time, 8.30pm AEST on Friday, March 18, 2016 at HPCA Stadium, Dharamsala

Australia
$1.60 at William Hill
ICC ranking: 5th
2014 World T20 result: Super 10

New Zealand
$2.40 at CrownBet.com
ICC ranking: 2nd
2014 World T20 result: Super 10

AUSTRALIA will commence their 2016 World Twenty20 campaign with a highly anticipated rematch of last year’s Cricket World Cup final.

But while the Aussies triumphed on that day at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, it’s New Zealand ($2.40 at CrownBet) who come into Friday’s clash in Dharamsala with all the momentum.

The Kiwis opened their account with a shock 47-run victory over India on Tuesday, successfully defending 126 on a difficult, turning track in Nagpur.

It was a remarkable recovery after Martin Guptill, Kane Williamson and Colin Munro contributed all of 21 runs between them in a new-look top three which failed utterly in its first competitive outing since Brendon McCullum’s retirement.

They also did it without Trent Boult and Tim Southee as Williamson, on his debut as New Zealand captain, made the bold call to bench his star seamers in favour of picking three specialist spinners.

The gamble paid dividends as Mitchell Santner (4/11), Ish Sodhi (3/18) and Nathan McCullum (2/15) dismissed the much-fancied hosts for only 79 runs, with 11 balls to spare.

“Obviously that was tough, they [Boult and Southee] are world class bowlers,” Williamson told the press after the win.

“But at the same time we are looking to do the best we can in these conditions. Certainly the spinners paid off today. The wicket spun a lot and they bowled very well on it.”

After conducting plenty of selection experiments themselves over the last few weeks, the picture is becoming a little clearer for Australia ($1.60 at WilliamHill.com) ahead of their Super 10 opener.

With scores of 42 and 60 in his last two knocks, Shane Watson appears to have edged out Usman Khawaja in the bat-off to partner Aaron Finch at the top of the order.

David Warner will most likely come in at number four, from where he scored 77 in a record partnership with Glenn Maxwell during the T20 series in South Africa earlier this month.

Josh Hazlewood is a certainty to lead the pace attack after bagging a hat-trick in the warm-up game against the West Indies, while Adam Zampa is expected to start over Ashton Agar as the preferred spin option.

A few big names are missing for Steven Smith’s squad, most notably that of Mitchell Starc, but former England spinner Graeme Swann believes the Australians’ batting depth alone makes them title favourites at India 2016.

“No team has more brutal batting power,” Swann wrote in The Sun.

“The likes of Glenn Maxwell, David Warner, Shane Watson and Aaron Finch are all match-winners.

“There are question marks about their bowling in subcontinental conditions. The brilliant Mitchell Starc is injured and they have no top-quality spinner but their savagery with the willow and T20 experience via the IPL and Big Bash more than compensates.

“Australia are like Germany in football. Nobody really likes them but they are always there. This time, I reckon they will lift the trophy.”

Match predictions

Result – Australian to win ($1.60 at William Hill)
Top match batsman – David Warner ($7.50 at Sportsbet.com)

Even with the younger McCullum brother gone, this New Zealand side can seriously hang.

We know how good the likes of Guptill, Boult and Corey Anderson are in short-form cricket, while Williamson appears to have inherited his predecessor’s streak for daring, innovative captaincy.

Meanwhile, the Aussies will miss Starc – undeniably the best white-ball bowler on the planet – and may still be uncertain as to the exact make-up of their best side.

But there is no denying the abundance of all-round Twenty20 talent at their disposal: Smith, Warner, Watson, Faulkner and Maxwell are all seasoned Indian Premier League veterans, while the likes of Agar, Khawaja, Zampa and Andrew Tye are among the Big Bash League’s best performers.

Player for player, it’s easy to see why the bookies have Australia as the frontrunners.

Shane Watson betting markets

Perhaps the biggest surprise of Australia’s T20 World Cup preparations has been the re-emergence of Watson as an opening batsman.

The former Test and ODI star made the final 15-man squad on the back of some sketchy form for Sydney Thunder in the BBL, ahead of Travis Head, Chris Lynn and a host of statistically stronger contenders.

It was expected he would serve as all-round relief for the likes of Faulkner and Marsh, but the David Warner experiment has given him the chance to reclaim the top-order slot he once occupied in all formats for Australia.

There are plenty of sound reasons for Watson’s inclusion: he boasts vast experience at international level, has intimate knowledge of Indian conditions after seven years with Rajasthan Royals in the IPL, and is as much a threat with the ball as with the bat in Twenty20 cricket.

Can he deliver on his obvious promise this time around? Or will Aussie audiences be left frustrated once again by a player who has stung them so many times before?

Top Australia batsman – $4.50 (Bet365)

Top match batsman – $6.50 (Luxbet)

Top Australia wicket-taker – $6.50 (Bet365)

Man of the match – $12 (Bet365)