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ALP shortens for key NSW seats in 2016 Australian election odds

Shorten and TurnbullPunters are warming to Bill Shorten and the Australian Labor Party as the 2016 Federal Election edges ever closer.

Online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has brought the ALP in from $6.05 to $5.50 to oust Malcolm Turnbull’s Coalition government.

The challengers still have plenty of ground to make up, however, as the Liberal-National alliance remains $1.15 favourites to stay in power.

The odds on a hung parliament have come in from $4 to $3.50, but a Coalition majority government is the popular prediction at $1.20.

Sportsbet revealed that more than 85 per cent of the money for the 2016 Australian election betting was with the incumbents.

Turnbull and company are favoured to win by a majority of either five or six seats (both $5), while Labor is slated at $12 odds to edge it by a single seat.

“Labor has clawed back some ground, but remain an outside chance of extracting the Coalition from office after just one term,” Sportsbet’s Ben Bulmer said.

“Punters are tipping the Coalition to win the election with an eight-seat buffer, but the odds suggest it will be more likely five or six seats.”

Government sworn in

Coalition – $1.15
Labor – $5.50

Hung parliament?

No – $1.27
Yes – $3.50

Type of government formed

Coalition majority – $1.20
Coalition minority – $6
Labor majority – $11
Labor minority – $16
No government formed – $21

Labor majority forecast

One seat – $12
Two seats, three seats – $13
Four seats – $16
Five seats – $21
Six seats – $26
Seven seats – $34
Eight seats, nine seats – $51
10 seats – $151
More than 10 seats – $101

Coalition majority forecast

One seat – $11
Two seats – $9
Three seats – $8
Four seats, five seats – $7.50
Six seats, seven seats – $5
Eight seats – $7.50
Nine seats – $9
10 seats, 11 seats – $11
12 seats – $14
13 seats, 14 seats – $21
15, 16, 17, 18 seats – $51
20 seats, 21 seats – $67
22 seats – $81
23 seats – $101
24 seats – $151
25 seats – $201
More than 25 seats – $51

Odds provided by Sportsbet.com.au

Labor firms in NSW seats of Page, Dobell, Eden-Monaro and Gilmore

Even though the bulk of the betting is with the Liberals and Nationals, the opposition is making some serious inroads in New South Wales.

Punters rate the Labor candidates in Page, Dobell and Eden-Monaro as sure things to oust the Coalition incumbents, while the gap is closing fast in Gilmore.

Page MP Kevin Hogan has moved out to $4.50 to keep his seat, with Labor’s Janelle Safin shortening to a mere $1.17.

It’s even worse for the Coalition in Dobell, where 95 per cent of the money is on Emma McBride ($1.15) to beat out the sitting Karen McNamara ($5).

Labor challenger Mike Kelly has come in to $1.27 in Eden-Monaro, while the incumbent Peter Hendy has gone out more than a dollar to $3.50.

In Gilmore, the once-secure Ann Sudmalis has drifted out to $1.65 as the ALP’s Fiona Phillips – in to $2.15 from $3.30 – continues to gain momentum.

“Punters are convinced the seats of Page, Eden-Monaro and Dobell will change hands, with the Labor challengers all at short odds to defeat the Liberal incumbents,” said Bulmer.

“Punters also rate Fiona Phillips as a genuine chance in Gilmore, but Ann Sudmalis remains the favourite – just.”

Dobell

Emma McBride (Labor) – $1.15
Karen McNamara (Coalition) – $5
Abigail Boyd (Greens) – $51
Robert Ervin (Christian Democrats) – $101
Carter Edwards (One Nation), Paul Baker, Gregory Stephenson (Independents) – $151

Eden-Monaro

Mike Kelly (Labor) – $1.27
Peter Hendy (Coalition) – $3.50
Tamara Ryan (Greens) – $51
Ursula Bennett (Christian Democrats) – $101
Don Friend (Veterans), Frankie Seymour (Animal Justice), Ray Buckley, Daniel Grosmaire, Andrew Thaler (Independents) – $151

Gilmore

Ann Sudmalis (Coalition) – $1.65
Fiona Phillips (Labor) – $2.15
Carmel McCallum (Greens) – $51
Steve Ryan (Christian Democrats) – $101

Page

Janelle Safin (Labor) – $1.17
Kevin Hogan (Coalition) – $4.50
Mark Ellis (Liberal Democrats), Kudra Falla-Ricketts (Greens) – $51
Bethany McAlpine (Christian Democrats) – $101
Anna Clare Ludvik (Animal Justice) – $151

All markets provided by Sportsbet.com.au – the home of online betting for the 2016 Australian Federal Election.

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