AFL top four all but sorted as Carlton, Freo face nervy finish

It looks as though Carlton and Fremantle will be battling for eighth position on the AFL ladder in the last week of the 2024 home-and-away season.

This comes after another entertaining round where favourites tumbled and underdogs kept their fading finals hopes alive.

On Friday night, the Sydney Swans all but secured the minor premiership with a 39-point win over Essendon at Marvel Stadium.

John Longmire’s men head into round 24 as outright flag favourites at $4 with Neds, while the Bombers are left to rue another promising campaign gone to scrap.

Saturday delivered some huge results in the context of the finals.

The GWS Giants beat Fremantle by nine points, solidifying their top-four spot while pushing the Dockers outside the eight.

Online bookmakers have the Giants just behind their cross-town rivals at $5 in premiership betting, while Freo are now $41 outsiders after paying single-digit odds a few weeks ago.

At the MCG, Brisbane gave up three late goals to lose by one point to Collingwood in a thrilling rematch of last year’s AFL Grand Final.

The Lions were premiership favourites a couple of weeks ago, but they have drifted out to $7 after back-to-back defeats and now look unlikely to finish in the top four.

The Magpies, meanwhile, are technically an outside chance to sneak into the eight if they demolish Melbourne this Friday night and other results go their way.

Brisbane’s defeat meant Geelong could secure a top-four spot with a win over St Kilda, but the Saints produced one of their best second-half displays of the year to run out 18-point winners at Marvel Stadium.

The Cats are paying $9 to win their second flag in three years, while they are $1.08 to secure a double chance in finals with a win over West Coast in round 24.

Port Adelaide faced a stern Showdown test against the Crows, but their class shone through late as they cemented a top-four spot.

The Power are paying $7 to win their second AFL flag, although they face a tricky finish against Freo next week with a home qualifying final on the line.

On Sunday, Western Bulldogs bounced back from last week’s defeat to Adelaide with a 96-point hammering of North Melbourne at Docklands.

They share an $11 outright quote with Hawthorn, who were similarly dominant in their clash with Richmond at the ‘G.

Over in Perth, a severely undermanned Carlton kept their season going with a gutsy 65-point victory against the Eagles.

Top AFL betting sites have the Blues at $17 to win their first premiership since 1995, although they may have to beat an in-form St Kilda in the last round to make sure of a finals berth.

AFL R23 fixtures & results

Friday, August 16

• Essendon 8.11.59 — Sydney 15.8.98

Saturday, August 17

• Gold Coast 9.9.63 — Melbourne 18.9.117
• GWS 15.11.101 — Fremantle 14.8.92
• Collingwood 11.13.79 — Brisbane 11.12.78
• Port Adelaide 11.14.80 — Adelaide 8.10.58
• St Kilda 16.11.107 — Geelong 14.5.89

Sunday, August 18

• Western Bulldogs 20.18.138 — North Melbourne 6.6.42
• Hawthorn 19.17.131 — Richmond 10.8.68
• West Coast 4.10.34 — Carlton 14.15.99

AFL Premiership 2024 betting odds – Round 23

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