AFL Round 23 betting tips, goalkicker picks & predictions

Round 23 could have a big impact on the 2025 AFL finals race, with no fewer than three matchups between teams vying for top-four spots. Check out BettingSite.com.au’s free tips and predictions for every game this weekend.

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Essendon v St Kilda

Friday, August 15 – 7:20pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Essendon showed some fight their Round 22 loss to Geelong, while St Kilda have now managed three tight wins in a row over the Demons, Kangaroos and Tigers. Young half-back Archie Roberts has been a standout in an otherwise forgettable season for the Bombers, and the AFL Rising Star candidate offers decent value to have 25 or more touches.

Fremantle v Brisbane

Friday, August 15 – 8:35pm AEST – Optus Stadium

This is the obvious pick of the Friday night clashes, and whoever loses might have to wave goodbye to a top-four spot. Freo had to work hard to beat Port Adelaide and keep their winning streak going, while Brisbane fell just short against Sydney — their second loss in three games. Don’t overthink this one; back the home side.

Gold Coast v GWS Giants

Friday, August 15 – 12:35pm AEST – People First Stadium

If they win this, Gold Coast will feel pretty confident of wrapping up their first-ever AFL finals berth. GWS have won seven of their last eight games, but the loss to the Bulldogs in Round 21 highlighted just how big the gap remains between their best and worst footy. At home, it is hard to bet against the rising Suns.

Carlton v Port Adelaide

Saturday, August 16 – 1:20pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

Carlton were competitive for a good chunk of their clash with Gold Coast in Round 22, while Port Adelaide nearly pulled off a monster upset at home against Fremantle. The Blues have struggled to contain the smaller forwards all season, so Port’s Willie Rioli looks a solid play for two or more goals at $2.40 with BetOnline.

Hawthorn v Melbourne

Saturday, August 16 – 4:35pm AEST – Melbourne Cricket Ground

Hawthorn have only lost to Adelaide and Freo over the last nine weeks, and their win over Collingwood last Thursday was impressive. Melbourne nearly knocked off the Bulldogs last Sunday, and they remain dangerous outsiders under interim coach Troy Chaplin. Hawks veteran Jack Gunston has booted three or more goals in four consecutive weeks, and there is good value about him to continue that streak.

Adelaide v Collingwood

Saturday, August 16 – 7:35pm AEST – Adelaide Oval

Adelaide had their wake-up call without dropping points against West Coast last time out, and they will be as dangerous as ever back on home soil. Collingwood are reeling after four losses in five games, and it doesn’t get any easier against the AFL ladder leaders — especially without key defender Jeremy Howe. Back the Crows to win at home.

North Melbourne v Richmond

Sunday, August 17 – 1:10pm AEST – Ninja Stadium

Have the top AFL betting sites got this one wrong? North Melbourne’s record in Hobart is nothing to write home about, and Richmond have been the more impressive of the two rebuilding sides in the back half of the season. The Roos will be missing star forward Nick Larkey for the rest of the year as well, so the value is with the Tigers.

Sydney v Geelong

Sunday, August 17 – 3:15pm AEST – Sydney Cricket Ground

Sydney showed glimpses of their best in the win over Brisbane last Saturday, with Isaac Heeney and Errol Gulden running the show. Geelong did not have it all their own way against Essendon, and there are some concerns the hunt for Jeremy Cameron’s ton is affecting their forward play. The Cats haven’t beaten the Swans at the SCG since 2019, so Sydney at the line (+18.5) or to win outright ($3.16) both offer value.

Western Bulldogs v West Coast

Sunday, August 17 – 4:40pm AEST – Marvel Stadium

The Doggies don’t miss too many opportunities to run up the score against the weaker sides. West Coast showed plenty against Adelaide last Sunday, but this will be a huge test on the road against a team with serious firepower. Dogs forward Aaron Naughton has been irrepressible in recent weeks and looks a safe bet to kick four or more goals at $1.60 with online bookmakers.

AFL Round 23 multi of the week

• Roberts 25+ disposals
• Fremantle by 1-39
• Gold Coast by 1-39
• Rioli 2+ goals
• Gunston 3+ goals
• Adelaide by 1-39
• Richmond to win
• Sydney +18.5
• Naughton 4+ goals

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