AFL Grand Final 2025 betting tips & odds | Geelong v Brisbane

Best bets for AFL Grand Final 2025

AFL Grand Final: Geelong v Brisbane match preview

It all comes down to this as Geelong face Brisbane in the 2025 AFL Grand Final at the MCG this Saturday afternoon.

The Cats will be looking to repeat their efforts from 2022, while the Lions are the reigning premiers and have now made their third successive grand final.

Last Friday, Geelong booked their place in the decider with a convincing 30-point win over Hawthorn. After conceding the first three goals of the game, it was largely one-way traffic before the Cats held off a late fightback.

On Saturday, Brisbane got the job done with a 29-point victory against Collingwood at the MCG. The Lions trailed at half-time, but an 11-goal second half was too much for the Magpies to handle.

We’ve seen this matchup on three occasions already this season. The Lions won both matches during the home-and-away season, but it was the Cats who got the job done in the qualifying final, winning by 38-points.

Top AFL betting sites have Geelong as slight favourites at $1.56, while the Lions are at $2.50. The line is set at 11.5 points.

Geelong v Brisbane team news – AFL Grand Final 2025

Geelong have been dealt a massive blow with star defender Tom Stewart ruled out due to concussion. This should mean ruckman Rhys Stanley returns to the side, with Mark Blicavs set to move into the backline.

Brisbane have also suffered a major loss this week, with midfielder Jarrod Berry in doubt due to a shoulder injury. However, two-time Brownlow Medal winner Lachie Neale is mounting a miracle comeback from a calf injury suffered against the Cats three weeks ago.

If Neale is unable to play, then expect Bruce Reville to be promoted from the sub role and either James Tunstill or Deven Robertson to make the side.

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Geelong v Brisbane AFL Grand Final predictions

Throughout the back half of the season, arguably no side has looked stronger than Geelong. They have experience across every line of the field, while their mix of stars and role players makes for an incredibly professional outfit. They showed how to beat Brisbane three weeks ago, and if they play to that level again, expect the Cats to get the job done by less than 40 points at $2.15 with major online bookmakers.

Bailey Smith has been a midfield star in his first season at Geelong, racking up the footy at will. He averages 31.4 touches per game this year, while he has passed the 30-disposal mark in six of his last seven matches. On the big stage, back Smith to continue his good form with 30 or more disposals at $2.15 with Marantelli Bet.

Darcy Wilmot has been one of Brisbane’s quiet achievers this season. The 21-year-old averages 25.5 disposals across his last four games, providing burst off the half-back flank. At $3.15 with leading Australian bookies, Wilmot offers incredible value to have 25 disposals once again.

In each of the last three grand finals, the Norm Smith Medal winner has come from outside $20 odds. Geelong half-forward Shaun Mannagh fits the mould nicely, as he can find plenty of the footy while remaining a regular threat around goal. At $26 with Neds, you’ll struggle to find better value.

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