AFL Grand Final 2024: Sydney v Brisbane tips, odds & predictions

AFL Grand Final 2024 top betting picks

Sydney v Brisbane AFL Grand Final preview

The Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions will face off in the 2024 AFL Grand Final this Saturday afternoon at the MCG, and there is not much separating them in the major betting markets.

The Swans enter the premiership decider as $1.75 favourites with Neds, leaving the Lions as slight outsiders at $2.10. With the match line set at a mere 3.5 points, the bookies are forecasting a match to remember.

The Swans’ journey to the AFL Grand Final was straightforward after they finished first on the ladder, earning themselves two home finals. In the first week, they were able to secure a miraculous 28-point comeback over the GWS Giants and a trip straight to the preliminary finals.

Last Friday, Sydney booked their ticket for the last weekend in September with a commanding 36-point victory over Port Adelaide. Set up by an impressive first half, the Swans were never really challenged as they cruised through the second half to complete the win.

Reaching the AFL Grand Final for the fifth time since coach John Longmire took over the reins in 2011, the Swans will be out to avenge losses in 2014, 2016 and 2022. The midfield trio of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden are going to be a force, while the Sydney defence has been excellent in the finals series so far.

However, the Swans will be without captain Callum Mills, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Key forward Logan McDonald looks set to play despite being subbed off with an ankle problem against the Power, while the only player at risk of omission is substitute Robbie Fox, with Taylor Adams and Caiden Cleary in the mix.

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It has been a much more gruelling journey to the 2024 AFL Grand Final for the Brisbane Lions. After finishing fifth on the ladder, there were no second chances for Chris Fagan’s side.

Having demolished Carlton in the first week, Brisbane’s race looked run when they trailed the GWS Giants by 44 points in their semi-final. However, the Lions pulled off one of the all-time great comebacks in Sydney to set up a blockbuster preliminary final against Geelong.

Last Saturday, they had to do it all again. After conceding seven goals in the second quarter, the Lions trailed by 25 points early in the third term. However, they kicked nine goals to four in the second half and survived a late surge from the Cats to reach the big dance for the second year in a row.

The Lions also have a star-studded midfield, with the likes of Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage and Josh Dunkley leading the way. However, the most dangerous part of their game is the role of their smaller forwards, given Charlie Cameron, Cam Rayner, Zac Bailey, Callum Ah Chee and Kai Lohmann all have match-winning potential.

In a major blow, Brisbane will be without ruckman Oscar McInerney after he suffered a shoulder injury against the Cats. Darcy Fort is expected to fill his spot, while the rest of the side remains unchanged.

AFL 2024 Grand Final predictions – Swans v Lions

The Swans should be well rested, given they have played just twice in the last four weeks and were comfortable winners last Friday. Winning from outside the top four is always going to be a tough task, and the Lions have had two close, physical encounters over the last couple of weeks. Although Brisbane have won the last three matches between the sides, Sydney have been the better team all year, so back them to cover the line of 3.5 points at $1.91 with leading AFL bookmakers.

Sydney midfielder Isaac Heeney has been the best player in this finals series. The 28-year-old has eight goals from his last three matches and is a nightmare to cover when he roams forward from midfield. At $2.15 with top online bookies, back Heeney to continue his excellent form with two or more goals.

Another player who’s had an excellent finals series is Brisbane’s Cam Rayner, who has five goals in three games. After a quiet first half against Geelong, Rayner turned the game with a pair of second-half goals — including the sealer. As one of the most explosive players in the AFL, back Rayner to leave his mark on this match with two or more goals at $2.85 with leading sports betting sites.

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