AFL Grand Final 2023: Collingwood v Brisbane betting tips & odds

Magpies vs Lions best bets – AFL Grand Final 2023

2023 AFL Grand Final preview – Collingwood vs Brisbane

On the final day of September, the 2023 AFL Premiership season reaches its conclusion as the Collingwood Magpies take on the Brisbane Lions at the MCG.

After losing their preliminary final by just one point in 2022, the Magpies exorcised some demons last week with a nail-biting win over the GWS Giants. Although Collingwood were the form side of the AFL home-and-away season, they have been far from convincing in this finals series, as they have just scraped home in both matches.

After losing their last six games against the Lions, including both matchups this season, the Magpies will be aware that they need to change their gameplan in order to avoid the same outcome. The Pies also have a notoriously poor record in grand finals, winning just four of their last 20 appearances.

However, Collingwood have shown in 2023 that they are one of the most dynamic sides in the AFL when moving the ball forward. Their ability to scramble and move the ball quickly regularly catches opposition defenders out of position, giving their forwards plenty of space to work. But will that style of play hold up on the biggest stage?

The Brisbane Lions come into this weekend in excellent form, winning each of their last six matches. They have also enjoyed easier finals wins than the Pies, smashing Port Adelaide by 48 points and cruising home by 16 points against Carlton.

After making the preliminary finals three times in four years, the Lions return to the AFL Grand Final for the first time since 2004. Boasting an unbeaten home record and the most potent attack in the competition, Brisbane will be looking to overpower Collingwood with their vast arsenal of scoring options.

However, this game will not be played at Fortress Gabba, and that is the major concern for the Lions. They have lost 14 of their last 15 matches at the MCG, including two this season. With the Magpies in excellent form at the ‘G, Brisbane will need to dig deep.

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Magpies vs Lions team news – AFL Grand Final 2023

Collingwood will be without key forward Dan McStay (knee) and midfielder Taylor Adams (hamstring) after they were both ruled out early in the week. Billy Frampton looks the likely replacement for McStay, but the Pies could elect to go smaller with either John Noble or Jack Ginnivan.

Brisbane key defender Jack Payne looks likely to return after missing last week due to an ankle injury. After an impressive showing against the Blues, Darcy Gardner appears to be the likely omission if Payne returns.

Collingwood vs Brisbane Lions AFL Grand Final predictions

With the two best teams of 2023 set to face off in excellent conditions, expect this to be a thrilling contest. Despite their injuries, the Collingwood Magpies look hard to beat – due in no small part to their experience playing in front of huge crowds week after week. At -133.33, the minor premiers are great value to go on with the job.

After scoring 10 goals across Brisbane’s two wins over Collingwood during the season, Lions forward Charlie Cameron will be looking to cause the Pies even more headaches this weekend. Returning to an AFL Grand Final for the first time since 2017, when he lost playing for the Adelaide Crows, Cameron will understand the occasion better than many of the players around him. After a wasteful 1.3 last weekend, we are backing him to straighten up with two or more goals at -163.93 with top AFL bookmakers.

Another major threat in Brisbane’s stacked forward line is Joe Daniher. He has great hands overhead, his goalkicking accuracy has improved significantly of late, and his booming left boot keeps him in range anywhere within 60 metres. At +900, he is our tip for the first goalscorer in the 2023 AFL Grand Final. However, if you are looking for a value pick, Collingwood midfielder Jordan De Goey presents good odds at +1800 with BetOnline.

With six of the finals matches so far going under the total points line, it is clear that the intensity of the footy has impacted scoring at both ends. The Collingwood defence has been excellent so far, while the Lions conceded only four goals across the last three quarters against the Blues. Expect this one to go under 165.5 total points.

AFL Grand Final key matchup: Nick Daicos vs Lachie Neale

Nick Daicos vs Lachie Neale

After missing the last six weeks due to injury, Collingwood midfielder Nick Daicos returned last week with 28 disposals. Although not his most damaging performance, he now looks set to become a major factor in the 2023 AFL Grand Final. Known for performing in big games, Daicos will also be looking to get forward and hit the scoreboard.

Fresh off winning his second Brownlow Medal on Monday night, Brisbane midfielder Lachie Neale will be looking to put in another best-on-ground effort on Saturday. Playing in his first AFL Grand Final since he was part of Fremantle’s losing side in 2013, he will be keen to put in a much more polished performance this time. If the Lions are going to beat the Magpies, they will need a big effort from Neale in the middle.

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