AFC Championship Game betting tips | Bills v Chiefs NFL preview
| Buffalo Bills v Kansas City ChiefsNFL Conference Championship Odds & Game Info | |
|---|---|
| Best odds | Bills +110 at Marantelli Bet | Chiefs -131.58 at Marantelli Bet |
| When | Monday, January 27 – 10:30am AEDT |
| Where | Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, Missouri |
| Watch live | Foxtel, Kayo, NFL Game Pass |
Bills v Chiefs best bets
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Over 47.5 total points
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
Bills v Chiefs preview – AFC Championship Game
The Kansas City Chiefs will continue their chase for a third consecutive Super Bowl win when they host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game this Monday (AEDT) at Arrowhead Stadium.
At home, the Chiefs are slight favourites at $1.76 with major online bookmakers, while the Bills are at $2.10. With a close game expected, the line is set at just 1.5 points.
Buffalo have made it to the AFC Championship Game in dramatic circumstances after a narrow 27-25 win over the Baltimore Ravens. In a back-and-forth game, the Ravens scored a touchdown with under two minutes remaining but were unable to clinch the two-point conversion, handing Buffalo the victory.
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The Bills’ defense was crucial in the win, generating three turnovers, while quarterback Josh Allen was able to run in two scores.
As the MVP betting favorite, a lot of the Bills’ success relies on Allen. While his passing numbers aren’t ridiculous in terms of total yardage, Buffalo are the best turnover team in the NFL, and they are yet to turn the ball over during the playoffs.
Allen and running back James Cook have scored a combined 31 touchdowns on the ground, while the QB has added 30 more through the air. The lack of a distinct No.1 receiver means the offence isn’t predictable, while the Bills finished the regular season with the second-best offensive record in the NFL.
On the injury front, there are some concerns for the Bills this week. Safety Taylor Rapp hasn’t practiced this week due to a hip injury, corner Christian Benford is in concussion protocols, and linebacker Matt Milano is dealing with hamstring soreness.
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After earning the first-round bye as a result of finishing first in the AFC, the Chiefs beat the Texans 23-14 last Saturday. Although Houston were within one point early in the fourth quarter, 10 unanswered points meant Kansas City ran out comfortable winners.
Superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw for 177 yards and a touchdown, while tight end Travis Kelce had a season-high 117 receiving yards and a score.
While Mahomes gains all the attention for his flashy plays and composure down the stretch, an equally important part of this team is the defence. The Chiefs finished the regular season as one of the top teams in the NFL for points conceded, while they had eight sacks against the Texans.
This is a unit that has been to four of the last five Super Bowls and won the last two, so expect the Chiefs’ experience to show in this clash.
Unlike the Bills, Kansas City are at full strength for this game after they listed a completely clear injury report during the week.
Bills v Chiefs betting strategy – AFC Championship Game
It could be argued that the Bills enter this game in better form than the Chiefs, but given the record of Mahomes and co. in playoff games at Arrowhead, it is hard to look past them. Buffalo have been knocked out by Kansas City in three of the last four years, and the Chiefs seem to manage games better than anyone else. If Mahomes gets the ball with a chance to win the game, expect him to do it.
In a clash between two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, expect this game to have plenty of scoring. The Bills have scored over 27 points in both playoff games so far using a run-heavy offensive plan, so if they are forced to pass the ball, expect the scoring rates to go even higher. With a close game predicted, there will also be increased scoring inside two-minute drills, so back this game to clear 47.5 points at $1.90 with leading NFL sportsbooks.
After a lean season by his own lofty standards, Travis Kelce returned with a bang last Saturday against the Texans. He is Mahomes’ go-to guy and has more playoff experience than anyone else on the field. With injury concerns in the Bills’ secondary, back Kelce to find the endzone once again at $2.25 with top sports betting sites.