Adelaide vs Carlton AFL Rd 20 best bets & odds – July 30, 2022

Can the Adelaide Crows find the home ground motivation to push Carlton when the sides clash at the Adelaide Oval this Saturday in round 20 of the 2022 AFL season?

Despite losing four games on the bounce, deeper analysis suggests the Crows are not travelling too badly. They were competitive at home versus the Demons, got pipped by the miracle-working Magpies, and didn’t look too shabby against the surging Swans in Sydney. They have unearthed some new talent along the way and might be looking to salvage something from their overall disappointing 2022 season.

The Crows are capable of playing decent football but have been blighted by inconsistency and costly mid-game lapses. Pre-season expectations may have been for a mid-table position, but Adelaide find themselves in 16th spot with a percentage of 83. The Crows have personnel gaps to fill and should be active recruiters in the off-season.

With a possible top-four spot beckoning, the Blues have plenty to play for here. Carlton were pushed by the plucky Giants in round 19 but had too many guns in the end. After going win-loss-win-loss-win, the Blues will be looking for some consistency as they roll toward finals action. With the ladder in a state of constant flux, booking premiership points against lowly ranked sides becomes imperative.

That said, we see this as a bit of a danger game for the Blues unless they can break Adelaide spirits in the first quarter, like they did to the Eagles in round 17. A prolonged battle will suit the home team, so Carlton supporters will be hopeful of a quick rout.

Key matchup: Rory Laird vs Patrick Cripps

Adelaide midfielder Rory Laird had another afternoon to remember against the Swans, grabbing 38 disposals, 11 clearances, six tackles, and one goal. One can only wonder what he could achieve in a better squad. Laird’s 2022 stats are in the elite range across the board, averaging 33.2 disposals, 7.6 clearances, and 8.1 tackles per game. Whatever the Crows are paying Laird, it’s not enough.

Carlton midfielder Patrick Cripps continues to play the game on his terms, and helped bury the resilient Giants by amassing 34 disposals, four tackles, four clearances, and one goal, all while directing his young charges like a battlefield general. Cripps and Sam Walsh are forming a formidable bond that could see the Blues do some damage in September.

Adelaide vs Carlton Rd 20 betting strategy

Games where one side has everything to play for and the other has very little to motivate them can be hard to handicap. If they were playing at Marvel Stadium, the Blues would be unbackable odds, but how do we quantify the assistance that home supporters might lend a team sitting at 5-13? We are sticking with the Blues here with medium confidence. We will back them at 1-39 points, because a blowout seems highly improbable. The best-case scenario sees them build an early lead and coast through the second half while avoiding potential injury to key players.

Adelaide vs Carlton AFL same game multi tips

For the value hunters, we will be looking at the player markets to tip value into this contest. We are linking Carlton 1-39, into Adam Cerra 25+ disposals, into Charlie Curnow 2+ goals. This triple-header will return an attractive $5.03 courtesy of Ladbrokes.

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