2020 Melbourne Cup betting tips & runner-by-runner guide

The Aidan O’Brien-trained import was an eye-catching runner from the back of the field in the Caulfield Cup, where he had no other choice but to settle deep drawing the car park. He looked to be the winner with 200m to go when letting down with a huge turn of foot, but the eventual winner, Verry Elleegant, just kept finding to hold out the import. He has plenty of support, but the two miles, firm track and big weight are all queries.

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The Godolophin 7YO has been far from his best heading into another run in the Melbourne Cup. He’s a galloper who prefers the sting out of the ground, and with a perfect spring day on the agenda, he looks to be a genuine outsider in the Melbourne Cup. His run two starts back in the Hill Stakes showed he can still handle a firmer track, but then he failed to make an impact in the Caulfield Cup a fortnight later.

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The winner of the 2019 Melbourne Cup comes back to defend his crown 12 months later. Unfortunately for connections, he looks like he is going to struggle this time around after being one of the first horses beaten in the Caulfield Cup a fortnight ago. Since winning the Melbourne Cup, the Danny O’Brien-trained gelding has only run into the placings on one occasion. He looks set to be one of the runners in the ‘also ran’ category.

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Joseph O’Brien will be hoping his gelding makes amends for his result in last year’s Melbourne Cup, where he was relegated from second to fourth in the steward’s rooms after causing interference in the closing stages. Since then, he has gone back to Ireland and put in a consistent stretch of form culminating in a win in the Her Majesty Plate at Down Royal back in early September. He looks to be one of the leaders, and it may be worth putting him into exotics based on his run in last year’s Cup.

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It’s hard to ignore the hype around the Cox Plate winner after his barnstorming finish to take out the second of three majors during the Melbourne Spring Carnival. He would prefer the sting out of the ground, but there’s no reason to say that he cannot win this race based on his efforts in the Cox Plate. He drops 3.5kg in the weights and will be one of the few fighting out the finish here.

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The Joseph O’Brien-trained gelding absolutely bolted in the Curragh Cup two starts ago, winning by eight lengths over Master Of Reality and some 15 lengths ahead of the runner in third. He was a touch disappointing in his run in the Melbourne Cup last year but will take benefit from that experience. If he has enough left in the tank at the top of the straight, he could prove hard to catch if that run at the Curragh is anything to go by.

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Chris Waller and Mark Zahra will attempt to do the Caulfield Cup/Melbourne Cup double with Verry Elleegant, who gets in well at the weights despite her last-start victory. She looked to be a touch vulnerable at the 100m mark in the Caulfield Cup when Anthony Van Dyck was descending on her, but she found plenty to keep the import at bay. She looks to be the best of the local hopes in this year’s Cup, and if she can run out the two miles, then she will be right there when the whips are cracking.

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Kris Lees is a remarkable trainer, but if he can somehow win the Melbourne Cup with this out-of-form gelding, then it may go down as his best-ever training performance. In his last seven starts, Mustajeer has not got within three lengths of the eventual winner. In plenty of those events, he was chasing home runners he will come up against in the Melbourne Cup.

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Willie Mullins looks to be having a throw at the stumps with this 8YO gelding, who comes to Australia for the first time with no black-type wins to his name in the UK. It seems a bit strange he is $34 or shorter in some markets, considering he looks to lack a little bit of class that his rivals have. There are far better options at odds.

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If we are not too keen on Stratum Albion’s chances, what does it say for the gelding who finished behind him in a recent race at York back in August? He was the first one beaten in the Caulfield Cup when dramatically dropping back through the field, and the $101 looks to be a touch under the odds as he steps up to an even tougher assignment.

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Is there a more honest horse than this 7YO gelding? He is always there or thereabouts when the whips are cracking, and he looks primed to give this a real shake for his grand final. He was only beaten a length and a half in the Melbourne Cup last year, and he looks well placed to breakthrough at his third attempt. He doesn’t possess the turn of foot some his rivals have, but he will stay all day and has to be included in any exotics you are playing.

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Charlie Fellowes’ 8YO is basically a local now. The import seems to grow a leg when he arrives in Australia, and his form over his past campaigns here show he is primed second up. From barrier one with Jamie Kah on board, there seems to be no reason why he cannot improve on his second in the race last year, where he looked the winner with 150m to go. His run in the Caulfield Cup was massive, and there would be no big shock if he takes out this year’s Melbourne Cup.

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A year ago, Paul Preusker’s 6YO gelding seemed our best hope in the Melbourne Cup. His run didn’t disappoint, finishing under a length of Vow And Declare when charging down the outside late. He enters this year’s cup third up and will be looking for more luck than what he got in the Turnbull, where he continually managed to find trouble. Importantly, Craig Williams cherry picked him as his ride in the Cup. From barrier seven, there should not be many excuses if he isn’t fighting out the finish.

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This year’s Adelaide Cup winner will look to build on his second-up run in the Geelong Cup, where he returned to some of his old ways when making up plenty of ground along the rails before peaking on his run late. There is no doubt he is as tough as old boots, but at this stage in his career, this looks to be a bridge too far.

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Can King Of Leogrance win The Cup?

The history buffs would be completely turned off by barrier 18, so we’ll say no. His form hasn’t really been good enough, but he will stay the trip and did beat Ashrun home at Geelong who is a live chance.

*** UPDATE ***
King of Leogrance has been scratched from the Melbourne Cup (Flemington Race 7) at 7.38am by the Stewards acting on veterinary advice. The horse was inspected by RV veterinarians upon request of the stable and was found to be lame in its off fore leg.

Has there ever been a more spoken-about local hope in recent years than Russian Camelot? There is no doubt he is super talented, but could the two miles be a touch too far for him? His win in the SA Derby over 2500m was breathtaking, but that was during his three-year-old campaign. This time in, he just hasn’t been able to piece it all together as nicely as he would have liked. He was the best of the local brigade in the Cox Plate and loomed into the race nicely, hitting the lead at the 150m mark before being claimed late. He has to be included in any exotics.

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There hasn’t been much to turn the eye at so far this campaign from the Anthony Freedman galloper, who was a dominant winner in the Geelong Cup last start to seal his place in the Melbourne Cup. He was far from disgraced in last year’s Cup, where he was just two lengths off the leaders, and has seemingly taken improvement from his time in the paddock since then. He could be one of the better value bets for the Cup.

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The five-year-old entire surprised many when he ran third to Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck in the Caulfield Cup, after being plain in the Underwood and Herbert Power Stakes leading up to it. He was a winner first-up at Flemington over 1700m, and should appreciate getting back to the big track. He only battled away in this race last year, and has run a narrow second in the Sydney Cup over the same distance in the Autumn, but this is much harder. If he replicates his Caulfield Cup effort, he is a big smokey.

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Best bets for Melbourne Cup 2020

$100 Betting Strategy:

• $40 win – Prince Of Arran
• $20 win – Russian Camelot
• $10 each way – Persan
• $10 each way – Twilight Payment