Which NRL teams have exceeded bookmaker expectations in 2024?

With the NRL heading towards its halfway point in 2024, now is a good time to take stock of how teams are faring compared to their pre-season bookmaker odds.

Panthers and Broncos still favourites

Heading into the season, the Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos were neck-and-neck in the bookies’ odds to win the 2024 NRL Premiership.

After 12 weeks, one thing has remained the same: Penrith and Brisbane are still favourites to win it all. The Panthers opened on $3.75 and have since shortened to $3.20, while the Broncos began at $4.33 and have lengthened slightly to $5.

The Panthers sit second on the NRL ladder with eight wins and three losses, while the Broncos are down in sixth having won seven and lost five.

Odds crunch for Sharks, Roosters and Dolphins

Generally speaking, the top NRL bookmakers have lengthened the odds for the rest of the field with the season’s two favourites performing well.

However, three title hopefuls have made up ground on the Panthers and Broncos over the opening three months.

The Cronulla Sharks, sitting top of the table with nine wins and two losses, have been the biggest movers. Pre-season, Cronulla were eighth in the pecking order to win the NRL 2024 title, paying $21. These odds have been slashed, with the Sharks now fourth favourite at $7.50.

The Sydney Roosters have also improved. Paying $9 before round one, the Tricolours now return $5 and have moved up to third favourite.

While the Dolphins still aren’t seen as genuine title threats, their betting odds have improved significantly. Ahead of the season they were 13th in the outright market at $41, but they now sit in seventh at $31.

Titans and Rabbitohs blow out

At the other end of the spectrum, two clubs have fallen to the foot of the outright market after three months of play.

Heading into the NRL 2024 season, the Rabbitohs sat on the third line of premiership betting at $8.50. With South Sydney now propping up the table at 2-9, those odds have skyrocketed to $201.

While no-one saw the Gold Coast Titans as much of a chance in February, any possibility of them prevailing in 2024 has been well and truly snuffed by NRL bookies. The outfit’s odds have gone from a modest $41 pre-season to a whopping $501.

With 15 rounds still to come in the regular season, will we see more teams defy the odds? Or is the writing on the wall for a Panthers vs Broncos grand final again?

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