Which NRL teams can still make finals in 2024?

One week remains in the NRL regular season, and 11 teams are still in finals contention heading into the last round.

With the Brisbane Broncos slipping up against the Dolphins at Suncorp over the weekend, the six-time champions are officially out of the race.

However, the Canberra Raiders, Newcastle Knights, St George Illawarra Dragons and Dolphins are all still jostling for eighth place on the ladder.

To make things even more interesting, these four play each other in round 27.

Here’s a look at how each team can make the cut.

Canberra Raiders

While the Raiders are still technically a chance of making the top eight after their upset win over the Sydney Roosters on Sunday, NRL betting sites have all but written them off.

For Canberra to qualify, there are three scenarios:

Scenario A

• Knights and Dolphins draw
• Raiders beat Dragons by any margin

Scenario B

• Knights beat Dolphins
• Raiders beat Dragons by 81 more points than Knights won by

Scenario C

• Dolphins beat Knights
• Raiders beat Dragons by 136 points more than Dolphins won by

St George Illawarra Dragons

The St George Illawarra Dragons also face a challenging path to qualify for the NRL finals, and rugby league bookies are giving them very little chance of doing so.

Here is what would need to unfold for the Dragons to make the eight:

Scenario A

• Knights and Dolphins draw
• Dragons beat Raiders by any margin

Scenario B

• Knights beat Dolphins
• Raiders beat Dragons by 77 more points than Knights won by

Scenario C

• Dolphins beat Knights
• Raiders beat Dragons by 132 points more than Dolphins won by

The Dolphins

The Dolphins are a strong chance of making the top eight and have a clear path to doing so.

By and large, their fate is in their own hands: beat the Knights on Sunday, and they will make eighth place.

There is a very, very unlikely scenario where either the Raiders or Dragons won by a margin of 130 points or more, which would mean the Dolphins have to win by a certain amount against the Knights.

A win should be enough to get them through.

Newcastle Knights

For the Newcastle Knights, it is much the same scenario as the Dolphins.

Defeat the Dolphins on Sunday, and they are into the NRL finals — scraping through by the skin of their teeth, just like they did in 2023.

There is a slight chance that a one-sided result in the Raiders vs Dragons game would mean they need to win by more than one point, but otherwise, a win by any margin will get the job done.

The Knights are bookmaker favourites to qualify for the finals, as they are playing at home and beat the Dolphins earlier this season.

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Agumen Famundi

2 months ago

Dolphins beat knights by 10 points

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