Where are the best bets in Game 1 of the Perth vs. NZ NBL finals?

March 2, 9:35pm. Perth Arena.

The two best teams over the last 10 years will meet in the finals again when the Perth Wildcats host the New Zealand Breakers in game one on Wednesday night.

No other team has won the NBL title in the last five years apart from the Wildcats (x1) and Breakers (x4) and it will stay that way for at least another year.

Game one is hosted by Perth as a result of its higher finishing position in the regular season, but the Breakers are full of winning experience and are coming off a series sweep of former premiership favourites, Melbourne United.

Perth battled its way past Kirk Penny and the Illawarra Hawks with a 2-1 series win, winning both games at home, and that’s where this series could be won and lost. Perth’s home record is outstanding, but the Breakers have shown they can win anywhere and that’s what makes this finals series so exciting.

Beal, Prather, Martin, Jawai, Jackson, Vukona, Abercrombie, Webster – just some of the names in action across this series and it’s clearly the best talent the NBL has ever had on show. It all goes down on Wednesday night where the bookmakers are leaning towards the home side.

Open an account with Sportsbet.com.au for the best NBL finals odds.

Perth vs. Breakers betting markets

Perth Wildcats – $1.48
New Zealand Breakers – $2.67

This market looks spot on and we expected Perth to be favourites simply due to playing at home. The home side has won the last four games between these two sides and punters of Perth will be happy about the price on offer.

Punters of the Breakers will also be satisfied with the $2.67 at Sportsbet.com.au seeing as they have won their last seven games leading into this finals series. Perth on the other hand have lost three of their last seven and their winning hopes could rely on the likes of either Bradley Beal or Casey Prather getting hot from the three-point line.

Perth will be looking to post big numbers to stifle the Breakers. The Wildcats have scored at a good clip this season and they typically beat teams with their offense. The Breakers are the complete opposite and will try beat teams with their defense, but their attacking play has been improved in recent times.

The Breakers went most of the season without posting 100 points in one game, but a 106-point game against Adelaide was soon followed by a 100-63 win against Melbourne United and that’s seemingly woken the Breakers up as they manhandled a seriously-good United outfit.

The obvious worrying factor for Breakers bettors is Perth’s home record. They have lost only twice in their last 15 home games, but the Breakers did manage to win back-to-back games in Perth in 2014/2015.

The points spread line is set at 4.5 and that could be where a large majority of money is spent on this game. This series should be close and we’re expecting tight contests for all three games if it gets that far. The Breakers have had to wait two weeks to play this game which could see them play a touch rusty and the amount of travel these teams have to do this week is ridiculous. All of those factors could produce low-scoring and tight results.

We are leaning towards the Breakers +4.5 ($1.90) at Sportsbet. The Breakers have shown over the past five years that they are the toughest team to beat come finals time and we think they have the better momentum heading into this game.

Perth is tough, there’s no doubting that, but the defense of the Breakers can stifle Beal from the outside and the likes of Charles Jackson and Mika Vukona can stop Casey Prather from driving to the rim. The worry for the Breakers is whether Corey Webster feels like having a good game. He can get lazy and give up on finding an open shot, but if he’s on it could be a long night for Perth punters.

Wildcats vs. Breakers exotic markets

There aren’t many exotic markets on offer for the NBL finals, but we have found a few which could be worth a nibble.

Exotic markets are good for punters that like a bit of difference. There isn’t much stress involved and it’s usually a quick result so your money will be into your account pronto. In this game there is an interesting betting option called First Score Type.

2 points – $1.17
3 points – $6.00
Free throw – $11

We understand that the two-point shot is the most common, but who wants to take $1.17? We don’t, so we’re going to suggest taking both 3 points and free throw. Both teams like to throw up a big three-point shot, especially Cedric Jackson for the Breakers. He tries to find his rhythm early in the game by making a three and this is where punters could make some cash.

Free throw is also another solid option at $11. Both teams like to play hard defense with no easy buckets allowed, therefore the likelihood of a free throw isn’t as bad as you would think.

The odd/even market appeals to casino bettors who love a good coin flip. Punters simply have to choose whether the total points will land on an odd or even number. There is no skill involved with betting this option, but if you play blackjack or roulette at the casino, this option should appeal to you.

Odd – $1.90
Even – $1.90

The third exotic option appeals to us as a very good betting situation. The Breakers are paying $1.83 to score more than 79 points on Wednesday night and we think they can average at least 20 points per quarter.

Their offense is starting to heat up and although the defense might play the bigger part in this game, we’d be surprised if the Breakers didn’t break 80 points.

Projected score: Perth 86 – Breakers 88