Wests Tigers v Parramatta Eels NRL preview & best bets | 10/4/23

Easter Monday NRL kicks off at 4pm with the Wests Tigers hosting the Parramatta Eels at Accor Stadium. Many will remember the Easter Monday miracle of 2022 when Jackson Hastings kicked a field goal to deliver the Tigers their first win of the season, will history repeat itself?

The Wests Tigers have made a number of changes in hopes of avoiding their 11th straight loss with Charlie Staines moving to fullback, Brent Naden coming back into the centres, Adam Doueihi starting in the five-eighth role and Joe Ofahengue coming onto the interchange bench.

The Eels have also been forced into some changes with Sean Russell and Haze Dunster replacing Waqa Blake and Bailey Simonsson on the right edge, Shaun Lane returns to the starting side pushing Ryan Matterson into the lock role and J’maine Hopgood back to the bench, with Matt Doorey dropping back to the reserves.

The Easter Monday miracle was delivered to the Tigers by Hastings last year when he delivered a field goal at full-time in dramatic fashion. Only five Tigers players from that match will take the field on Monday, and it can be argued that the hosts have gotten worse, give all the off-season signings the club has made. The return of Lane with the changes on the Eels right edge should be an improvement on the side that has only been capable of securing one win this season. While the Eels should be capable of winning, they may only be able to do so by a 1-12 point margin at $3.50 odds with the top bookmakers.

In 15 matches at Accor Stadium the Eels have won on 11 occasions and have so far this season dominated the Tigers in every statistical field of the game. To date this season, the Parramatta Eels are scoring most of their tries on the left hand side where, similarly, the Tigers are conceding most tries on their defensive right edge. This bodes well for the visitors with Maika Sivo who has scored five tries in as many games for the Eels, but will also present an opportunity for Dylan Brown. So far the Eels five-eighth has averaged more running metres than any previous season without recording a line break. At the same time, Brown has recorded 12 tackles breaks. Look for Sivo to record another try, with Brown scoring his first of the season, at any time during the game ($1.47 & $2.70).

Dry, sunny conditions are predicted all Easter long-weekend, including the Monday, which should make for an exciting, high-scoring game of football. The Tigers have shown at points in the season they are capable of scoring points, as are the Eels. Both sides are also more than capable of conceding points, an issue both sides are struggling to address. Look for this match to be an end-to-end game of football with plenty of points on offer in excess of the 44.5 total ($1.90).

Key matchup: Adam Doueihi vs Dylan Brown

Adam Doueihi vs Dylan Brown

The clash between these two running halves will be one of the highlights of the afternoon with most of each clubs highlights coming through these two men. Both are big, strong runners of the football who engage the defensive line, creating attacking football and points for both themselves and their outside backs. They key to this game between these two players will be defence. Doueihi has missed more tackles in three games in the halves than Brown has missed in five games. Whoever can control their game on the defensive side of the ball will give their side more opportunities to attack and win with the football.

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