UFC Fight Night betting tips, odds & predictions | 3/11/2024

The main card for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Albazi in Edmonton this Sunday (AEDT) features a fascinating women’s flyweight clash between Erin Blanchfield and Rose Namajunas. Other highlights include a likely slugfest between heavyweight strikers Derrick Lewis and Jhonata Diniz, and a favourable matchup for local hope Marc-Andre Barriault against Dustin Stoltzfus. Read on for BP’s fight preview and top UFC betting tips.

Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi

Brandon Moreno vs Amir Albazi

Elite flyweights Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi will square off in the UFC Edmonton main event. One has experience on his side, while the other remains undefeated in the UFC. See our Moreno vs Albazi fight preview and betting predictions here.

Erin Blanchfield vs Rose Namajunas

Erin Blanchfield vs Rose Namajunas

Erin Blanchfield (12-2-0) is an elite grappler holding a black belt in BJJ but was found lacking in the striking department in her recent loss to Manon Fiorot. The 25-year-old will face the same challenge in this matchup. If Blanchfield can take her opponent to the mat, she should be able to dominate proceedings, but if the fight remains upright, she will struggle to compete against a superior striker.

Rose Namajunas (14-6-0) has looked revitalised since moving up to the women’s flyweight division. The former strawweight champion has competed against some of the best female MMA practitioners in the sport and looks like a solid value bet with leading UFC bookmakers at the current price. If the 32-year-old can avoid the takedowns, she should be able to control the range and land relentless punches and kicks from a safe distance.

Derrick Lewis vs Jhonata Diniz

Derrick Lewis vs Jhonata Diniz

Derrick Lewis (28-12-0) has lost a yard in recent years but is still one of the most dangerous heavyweight strikers on the UFC roster. While the 39-year-old can struggle for motivation, he has won two of his last three appearances and should find a willing dance partner in Edmonton. The American is still deceptively agile for a man of his size and will be hunting an early stoppage to add to his lengthy record of knockout victories.

Jhonata Diniz (8-0-0) is a former kickboxing champion who made his UFC debut in April, scoring a knockout win over Austen Lane. The Brazilian followed up with a gritty decision victory over Karl Williams and is a warm favourite to continue his winning run. The 33-year-old does not possess the experience of Lewis, but a win here will announce him as an emerging force in the 265-pound division.

Caio Machado vs Brendson Ribeiro

Caio Machado vs Brendson Ribeiro

Caio Machado (8-3-1) has fought twice in the UFC, returning a pair of tough decision losses. Hoping to turn his form around, the Brazilian drops from heavyweight to light heavyweight for this contest. Machado’s speed advantage in the 265-pound division might not follow him into the lighter weight class, and he might be in for another rough night in Canada.

Brendson Ribeiro (15-7-0) brings an identical UFC record into this bout, with two losses in the premier MMA promotion. The 28-year-old combines solid striking power with an effective ground game but can get a little loose defensively, leaving openings for his opponents to exploit. He should have an athletic advantage here, and we are tipping Ribeiro to score his first UFC victory over his compatriot.

Marc-Andre Barriault vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Marc-Andre Barriault vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Marc-Andre Barriault (16-7-0) suffered a quick knockout loss to the talented Joe Pyfer in his most recent appearance and will be looking to bounce back in front of home fans. The 34-year-old is legendary for his prolific output and cardio endurance, and this appears a favourable matchup. The Canadian fires heavy shots from all angles and will aim to overwhelm his opponent as the fight enters the latter rounds.

Dustin Stoltzfus (15-6-0) is also coming off a first-round knockout loss after being caught by a spinning back elbow from Brunno Ferreira. The 32-year-old is primarily a submission grappler, with six professional wins coming via that method. The American will need to land early takedowns if he wishes to avoid Barriault’s dangerous kickboxing attack.

Mike Malott vs Trevin Giles

Mike Malott vs Trevin Giles

Mike Malott (10-2-1) was riding a six-fight win streak into his most recent bout, where he suffered a TKO loss to veteran Neil Magny. The Canadian is a proven finisher, with all 10 of his professional wins coming inside the distance. The 32-year-old is a strong wrestler, and most sports betting sites have him slated as the shortest-priced favourite on this main card.

Trevin Giles (16-6-0) has a patchy recent record, with two wins and four losses since 2021. The 32-year-old is susceptible to both knockout and submissions but also throws hard shots, and he will be hunting an upset KO victory in what shapes as an all-action affair. Giles possesses a big gas tank, but this bout appears unlikely to last the distance.

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