UFC 268: Usman vs Covington betting tips & top odds

Kamaru Usman will be looking for his fifth straight successful title defense of the UFC Welterweight Championship against Colby Covington this Saturday night in the main event of UFC 268. BettingSite takes a look at every fight on the main card and brings you the best bets on offer.

Welterweight: Kamaru Usman (-320) vs Colby Covington (+270)

Usually the UFC would make the path to a championship rematch after a knockout loss a bit more difficult for the loser. But this is a rematch that fight fans have been clamoring to see considering how thoroughly Usman has dominated his other competition. Colby Covington gave Kamaru Usman a much more challenging fight than Jorge Masvidal did in his two title shots, or than Gilbert Burns did at UFC 258.

There may be some value on Covington here at this price. The challenger looked good in his first match against Usman and may not be getting the proper respect on the betting board. But that could also just be a testament to how good Usman is. Usman’s in-ring IQ is off the charts and he’s so strong both on his feet and on the ground that it’s tough to see him losing by decision, which would be Covington’s most obvious path to a victory.

This should be a great main event fight. It will be interesting to see if either fighter adjusts their takedown attempt strategies in this rematch. Both are strong grapplers, but neither attempted a takedown in their first fight, opting to keep the fight standing and trading blows instead. In a five-round fight, we have to roll with Usman finding another win in another successful title defense.

Women’s Strawweight: Zhang Weili (-115) vs Rose Namajunas (-105)

Zhang Weili (21-2-0) had won 21 straight fights and was a perfect 5-0 in the UFC before suffering her stunning first round loss via head kick knockout from Rose Namajunas at UFC 261. Prior to that defeat, Weili had knocked out Jessica Andrade to win the championship and had successfully defended it once against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. It will be interesting to see how Weili bounces back after suffering her first loss since the first fight of her professional career back in November of 2013.

Rose Namajunas (10-4-0) is a highlight machine. She has gone 5-1 over her last four fights and four of her last five fights have come with the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship on the line. Namajunas has earned two Fight of the Night bonuses and two Performance of the Night bonuses over her last five bouts and will be in position to produce another banger this Saturday against Weili.

This one can so easily go either way. Both of these women are extremely well-rounded and balanced fighters that have multiple paths to victory. We can’t pass on the champion at this price, but you really couldn’t go wrong backing either fighter here in what will likely be one of the card’s top fights.

Lightweight: Justin Gaethje (-225) vs Michael Chandler (+190)

This one should be a whole lot of fun. Only two of Justin Gaethje’s 25 career fights have gone to the cards and 19 of his 22 wins have come by way of knockout. Each of Michael Chandler’s last five fights have ended in a knockout with him on the giving end of three and on the receiving end of two. These two heavy hitters will trade plenty of haymakers in the middle of the octagon and should both be comfortable looking for a big-time knockout.

The key to this fight will be Gaethje’s devastating calf kick going up against Chandler’s solid takedown offense. If Chandler is able to close the gap and take Gaethje to the mat, he could gain the advantage in the ground and pound. But to do so, he’ll need to withstand Gaethje’s calf kicks that have been extremely effective in keeping opponents at bay.

At this price point, you’d be well within reason to take a shot on Chandler. But with more experience at the UFC level, a higher knockout rate and a rock-solid chin, we expect Gaethje to find a way to get the job done with a statement knockout to earn himself another title shot sooner rather than later.

Featherweight: Shane Burgos (-190) vs Billy Quarantillo (+165)

Shane Burgos (13-3-0) was a rising star in the featherweight division as he entered the UFC with a 7-0 record and went 6-1 over his first seven fights with the promotion. But since then, he’s hit a snag with back-to-back losses to Josh Emmitt and Edson Barboza. Burgos will try to get back on track against Billy Quarantillo (16-3-0). Quarantillo is a scrappy fighter that is 9-1 over his last 10 fights including a 4-1 record in the UFC.

This is going to be a war. Burgos and Quarantillo both average over seven significant strikes per minute and neither will be afraid to trade blows in the center of the octagon looking for a knockout. We’ll take a stab on Quarantillo here; Burgos is the better fighter, but in a bout that will likelu just come down to who strikes with the big shot first, the price is right on a Quarantillo knockout bet.

Bantamweight: Marlon Vera (-175) vs Frankie Edgar (+150)

Marlon Vera (17-7-1) has traded wins and losses over his last four fights with a 2-2 record, losing to Song Yadong and Jose Aldo and beating Sean O’Malley and Davey Grant. Frankie Edgar (24-9-1) has lost four of his last six fights, most recently getting knocked out in the first round by a flying knee in his bout against Cory Sandhagen in February.

No one can question Edgar’s toughness or drive. But the 40-year-old’s best days are clearly behind him. He’s still tough and cagey enough to steal a win under the right circumstances, but it’s far more likely that Vera stays out of trouble and chips away at Edgar throughout the fight en route to a decision victory.