Sydney v Hawthorn AFL tips & predictions | Friday, March 7

Sydney vs Hawthorn best bets

AFL 2025: Sydney vs Hawthorn match preview

The Sydney Swans and Hawthorn will kick off the 2025 AFL Premiership season at the SCG this Friday night, and it’s shaping to be an entertaining clash between two sides that expect to finish at the top end of the ladder this year.

Leading AFL bookmakers expect this to be a close affair, with the line set at just 1.5 points. The Swans come in as slight favourites at $1.85 in head-to-head betting, while Hawthorn are at $1.97.

Sydney will be hoping to bounce back from their disappointing grand final defeat last season, where they fell to the Brisbane Lions by 60 points. They were the best side for large periods of 2024, winning the minor premiership, but failed to show up on the biggest stage.

They come into 2025 with a new leader after long-time coach John Longmire stood down at the end of last season, with former Eagles ruckman Dean Cox taking the reins.

The Swans were impressive in preseason, putting up a 57-point win over the Giants before beating the Gold Coast Suns by 21 points last Friday.

Hawthorn were the biggest improvers of the 2024 season, finishing seventh on the ladder and winning a final. While they eventually bowed out to Port Adelaide in the semi-finals, expectations are high for Sam Mitchell’s side in 2025 as they continue to improve.

The Hawks’ preseason form has been shaky with a pair of narrow losses to the Cats and Bulldogs. But with a rotated squad, the results shouldn’t have any bearing on their outlook this year.

Sydney vs Hawthorn team news

Sydney face an extensive injury list for Opening Round, headlined by the loss of star wingman Errol Gulden, who fractured his ankle in the win against the Suns last Friday.

Other key players who are unavailable include captain Callum Mills (foot), Harry Cunningham (foot), Logan McDonald (ankle), Robbie Fox (calf) and Caiden Cleary (suspension). Meanwhile, ruckman Brodie Grundy and small forward Tom Papley are facing fitness tests.

With no notable additions to the squad in the off-season, the Swans’ depth will be tested.

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On the other hand, the Hawks are set to unveil their new key-defensive pairing of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle, who made the move across from West Coast and St Kilda respectively.

On the injury front, Hawks key-forward pair Mitch Lewis (knee) and Calsher Dear (back) have been ruled out, while dashing half-back Changkuoth Jiath is a test with a hip injury.

Sydney vs Hawthorn predictions – AFL 2025

Despite their disappointing grand final loss, the Swans were the best team in the 2024 home-and-away season, particularly at home. The lack of key forwards in the Hawthorn side is set to be a major loss, while the Swans’ star midfield duo of Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner will be tough to stop. As slight favourites in this clash, back the Swans to get the job done.

One of Sydney’s emerging players from 2024, small defender Matt Roberts looks set for an even bigger role this year. The 21-year-old finished with a team-high 27 disposals in the preseason game last week, and from rounds 18-24 last season he collected over 20 disposals every time. Expected to take a greater share of kick-ins as well, back Roberts to collect over 25 disposals at $2.60 with top online bookies.

Hawthorn midfielder Jai Newcombe finished the 2024 season in spectacular form, collecting over 30 disposals in each of his last four games. Known for his contested work, Newcombe attends more centre bounces than any other Hawks midfielder. At $4.50 with Bet365, Newcombe offers great value to finish this game with 30 or more disposals.

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