Sydney v Geelong AFL betting tips & odds – Friday, June 30

Sydney v Geelong prediction & best bets

Sydney v Geelong AFL R16 match preview

The Geelong Cats head up to SCG to face off against the Sydney Swans this Friday night in the second AFL Grand Final rematch of the 2023 season. This one shapes as a must-win clash for two sides looking to stake their claim for a finals spot.

Last weekend the Swans hosted the West Coast Eagles and demolished them, racking up 205 points to run out 171-point winners. In the fourth-biggest win in the history of VFL/AFL footy, the Swans ran through the Eagles defence with ease, sharing the ball around inside 50 as they had 12 individual goalscorers.

It is easy to get carried away following a win of such magnitude, but it has to be the foundation for a serious finals push for the Swans. Looking to be through their extensive injury list from earlier in the season, Sydney will now be striving for more consistency in their performances – something they have lacked so far this season.

Sitting in 13th, finals chances are slim for the Swans, which is why beating another top-eight contender on Friday night is so critical.

The Geelong Cats faced off against Melbourne last weekend, winning by 15 points in a particularly impressive showing. After leading for much of the game, the Demons took the lead late in the third quarter, before the Cats went on a run of six goals unanswered goals to put the game out of reach.

A key moment in the match was the head knock sustained by Jeremy Cameron, who received a stray bump from teammate Gary Rohan and was unable to continue. While Rohan made amends of sorts with three goals against the Dees, Cameron will sit out this week under concussion protocols.

The Cats now sit in ninth spot on the AFL ladder and, following their inconsistent start to the season, now appear firmly back in finals contention. With recent form against the Swans proving positive, they will come into this one full of confidence.

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Sydney v Geelong AFL betting strategy

Following their 93-point loss the last time these two sides played, the Swans’ tall stocks have improved significantly – especially with the likely return of key defender Tom McCartin from injury. However, a record win against a historically poor Eagles team last weekend is not the best indicator of how the Swans are going, not least after the Cats knocked off a premiership contender.

The Cats are also expecting the return of captain Patrick Dangerfield in what should be a big boost to their midfield. At $1.89 with the best AFL bookmakers, Geelong show great value as slender favourites.

A key improver for the Swans this season, Errol Gulden has emerged as one of the top wingmen in the AFL. Known for his lethal left foot, Gulden is constantly looked as his teammates trust in his decision making going inside 50. Following his 32 disposals and three goals last weekend, look for Gulden to get plenty of it once again, paying $1.95 to have 25 or more disposals.

With eight goals in his past two games against the Swans, key forward Tom Hawkins will be the key target for the Cats once again this weekend. In the absence of teammate Jeremy Cameron, look for Hawkins to receive more opportunities inside 50. We like him to kick two or more goals in this one at $1.44 with Marantelli Bet.

Key matchup: Parker v Dangerfield

Luke Parker vs Patrick Dangerfield

Luke Parker has proven how vital he is to the Sydney Swans this season, regularly making a big play when his team really needs it. In a midfield full of young players who love to push the ball forward quickly, Parker’s calmness proves critical in slowing the game down when it isn’t all going the Swans’ way. A tough nut, he is always willing to put his body on the line for the team.

Following recent struggles with injury, Patrick Dangerfield’s absence has shown how essential he is to this Geelong team. A big body in the contest, he wins the hard ball and, at 33, still has plenty of speed breaking away from the contest. Although not at his peak anymore, Dangerfield is nevertheless leading by example in all facets of his game.

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