Sydney v Carlton AFL betting tips & odds – Round 11, 2023

Sydney v Carlton predictions & best bets

Sydney v Carlton match preview

Sydney will be trying to win successive games after their lucky escape against the Kangaroos when they host Carlton at the SCG this Friday in round 11 of the 2023 AFL season.

For the Blues, it is crunch time after three straight losses. They languish outside the top eight and are in danger of sliding further down the ladder unless they can produce some winning form.

The Swans were extremely fortunate to escape with a win against the lowly Kangaroos in round 10. North Melbourne held the lead with seconds remaining on the clock until a bizarre set of interchange infringement penalties gifted Sydney the victory.

The raw numbers tell the story for the Swans. They rank 13th in the competition for clearances, 18th for hitouts, and 11th for marks this season. They lost the inside 50 count to the Kangaroos by 55 to 49, and the centre clearances 18 to eight. These are not winning numbers.

Carlton copped a reality check when they lost by 28 points to the high-flying Magpies in round 10, and they’ll be looking to bounce back with a big effort here. Errant goalkicking was a big factor, with the Blues landing a disappointing 7.15.57 for the match.

The key stats from the round 10 game were very even, and Carlton’s season numbers contain glimmers of hope. The Blues rank second in the league for marks, ninth for clearances, and fifth for hitouts. They have endured a tough draw to date, and we expect them to improve as the season continues.

Carlton v Sydney betting strategy

Carlton are listed as slight favourites in early markets with the line set at negligible 1.5 points. While both teams have only won one game from their last five, we are extremely bullish on Carlton here. The Swans’ poor effort against North Melbourne suggests they are a bottom-four side. While Sydney will enjoy home-ground advantage, we will be queueing up to take Carlton at the line.

Key matchup: Robbie Fox v Charlie Curnow

Robbie Fox vs Charlie Curnow

The work of Sydney defender Robbie Fox may prove crucial in deciding the outcome of this game. The injury-plagued Swans look particularly vulnerable at the back, and players like Fox have been forced to step up their efforts. The 30-year-old stood tall against the Kangaroos, finishing with 28 disposals, six marks, and two tackles. Another big performance will be needed against the towering Carlton forward-line.

While his teammates had the yips, Carlton gun Charlie Curnow was able to boot three goals against Collingwood. He still leads the Coleman Medal race with 36 majors after 10 games. Curnow averages 7.3 marks per game in 2023 while finishing with 60% accuracy. He might cut loose against the depleted Swans and kick a bundle.

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