Sydney v Brisbane betting tips & predictions | AFL Round 1

Sydney vs Brisbane best bets

AFL Round 1: Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions preview

The Brisbane Lions start their 2025 AFL Premiership campaign with a grand final replay as they face the Sydney Swans at the SCG this Saturday afternoon.

Despite being at home for this clash, Sydney enter as slight underdogs at $2.10 with Bet365, while the Lions are at $1.85. With a close game expected, the line is set at just 4.5 points.

The Swans started their season last weekend with an Opening Round loss to Hawthorn by 20 points. Behind at every break, Sydney were unable to stop the Hawks’ midfield, while their forward line was incredibly disjointed.

There were two notable positional changes for Sydney in the opener, with Sam Wicks making the move to defence and holding young gun Nick Watson goalless. Less successful was Tom McCartin’s switch to the forward line, as the Swans looked short on key defenders.

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After such a strong year in 2024, expectations have lessened this season, with the Swans now sitting middle of the pack at $15 in premiership betting with leading AFL bookies.

Brisbane were also supposed to start their season last weekend, but due to weather conditions in Queensland, their clash with Geelong was rescheduled to Round 3.

At $7.50 to win the AFL Premiership with top online bookmakers, the defending premiers are tipped to be right back in the mix this season.

They boast one of the strongest midfield contingents in the AFL, while their small-forward mix was unstoppable towards the back end of 2024.

Despite being notorious slow starters, if they can bring their late-season form across, the Lions will be tough to beat in this clash.

Swans vs Lions R1 team news

Sydney’s extensive injury list has grown since last week, with veteran midfielder Taylor Adams going down with a hamstring issue against the Hawks.

With fellow on-baller Angus Sheldrick omitted, the Swans are set to name two more debutants this week, as former Docker Joel Hamling and 2024 draftee Riley Bice have been named in defence.

Brisbane’s forward line has a new makeup after key forward Joe Daniher announced his retirement in the offseason, leaving greater responsibility to the likes of Eric Hipwood and Logan Morris.

The Lions have four players unavailable due to knee injuries, with Lincoln McCarthy re-injuring his ACL in training this week to join Tom Doedee, Keidean Coleman, Lincoln McCarthy and Darcy Gardiner on the sidelines.

Brisbane have made just two changes to their grand final side, with ruckman Oscar McInerney returning to the lineup and top draft pick Levi Ashcroft set for his AFL debut.

Sydney vs Brisbane predictions – AFL Round 1

After watching the Swans in their AFL Opening Round clash, it is clear they are missing key players such as Errol Gulden, Callum Mills and Logan McDonald. Their forward line is a mess, while it is hard to see their midfield being able to keep up with the Lions’ star-studded group. While Brisbane may struggle with the loss of Daniher, they should still be too strong as $1.82 favourites with BetOnline.

Despite Sydney’s disappointing performance last Friday, half-back Matt Roberts was a clear positive with 26 disposals and nine marks. He is a key part of the Swans’ rebound game, and while he doesn’t take many kick-ins, he is often used as a short outlet if needed. With the Swans expected to be beaten in the middle, Roberts in defence is a reliable option to collect 25 or more disposals at $2.20 with major sports betting sites.

Brisbane small forward Callum Ah Chee starred with 10 goals during the 2024 AFL finals, including four against the Swans in the grand final. His mix of aerial presence and quality finishing make him a tough matchup for defenders of any size. Expect Ah Chee to continue causing trouble for the Sydney backline, kicking two or more goals at $2.50 with Dabble.

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