St Kilda v Sydney betting tips and prediction | AFL Rd 17

St Kilda v Sydney tips

Round 17 preview: Saints v Swans

St Kilda face another stern assignment when hosting the high-flying Sydney Swans at Marvel Stadium in Sunday AFL action.

The Swans may have lost at home last start, but they are paying $1.28 to defeat St Kilda ($3.65), with the $1.90 line set at 24.5 points.

The Saints’ scoring woes continued in round 16 when they kicked 8.12 to lose by two points to Port Adelaide. The Saints are ranked 16th in the AFL for goals scored and 15th for inside 50s, corresponding with their 15th ladder position. They are now listed at huge odds with online bookies to make the top eight.

St Kilda have suffered another blow to their scoring potency with a season-ending knee injury to spearhead Max King. Youngster Mattaes Phillipou looms as a possible replacement. Fellow key forward Anthony Caminiti was another casualty from the loss to the Power with an ankle sprain. Defender Dougal Howard looks set to return from a hamstring, while midfielder Sebastian Ross was managed and is a likely inclusion.

Sydney let the premiership points slide in round 16, allowing Fremantle to build a big lead in the second and third quarters before staging a late comeback that failed by a single point. The Swans are still premiership favourites but must overcome their tendency to start slowly and lose the opening exchanges.

Sydney defender Harry Cunningham is in doubt after being subbed out with a hamstring strain in the loss to Freo. This may allow Matt Roberts to return to the senior squad after some nice efforts in the VFL. Caiden Cleary was not able to generate much impact as the sub and might face pressure to retain his spot in the squad.

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St Kilda v Sydney betting tips and strategy

Sydney should bounce back following a shock loss to Fremantle, but this might be a narrow victory. Given their stuttering forward line, the Saints are likely to play a defensive strategy that attempts to stifle free ball movement and limit the Swans’ scoring opportunities. Sydney to win by 39 points or less looks like a value proposition, paying $2 on Unibet.

Given the expected St Kilda gameplan and their inability to break 60 points, this promises to be a low-scoring affair. The total points line looks about right, but taking under 163.5 holds greater appeal ($1.88).

James Jordon is enjoying a strong first season with the Swans and has shown an ability to use his speed and skills at ground level to hit the scoreboard. The 23-year-old displayed a glimpse of his talent in the round 15 win over the Giants with four shots at goal and can hopefully kick truly here to return $2.45 on Neds as an anytime goalkicker.

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