St Kilda v Port Adelaide AFL Rd 7 best bets & odds – 28/4/2023

The opening match in round nine of the AFL Premiership season sees Marvel Stadium host a clash between the top-of-the-table Saints and an in-form Port Adelaide, in a contest to prove whether either of these teams are serious about finals contention this season.

Following their loss against Collingwood the week prior, many fans had doubts over St Kilda and whether they were going to continue their previous good form or disappoint like they have done so many times before. Not only this, Carlton had a point to prove as well, following their round five embarrassment against the Crows. A close first half resulted in many lead changes and a four-point Blues advantage; however, the Saints outclassed their opposition in the second half, scoring six goals – to Carlton’s two – and eventually winning by 22 points in a scorecard that flattered the Blues.

The appointment of Ross Lyon last year was one that polarised the football world, with many doubts being cast over the appointment and whether the sport had passed by Lyon. However, what we have seen from them this year has been completely the opposite. Going back to the Lyon style of old, the Saints sit top of the ladder, with the best defensive record in the competition. Coming into the season, injuries to key forwards threatened to derail their season before it started, yet the quality of their defensive efforts, led by Callum Wilkie, has meant they haven’t needed to kick big scores to win games.

Another player who has really stood up for the Saints this year is veteran midfielder Brad Crouch. Following his move from Adelaide in 2021, he has been heavily criticised by many in the media for not warranting his price-tag as he was not having a big enough impact on games. However, this season, Crouch has stood up substantially around the contest, particularly in the absence of Jack Steele.

So far in 2023, this has been Crouch’s second-best season in terms of average disposals, although that doesn’t tell the whole story as each touch is more damaging than in years prior. Last week was his quietest of the season as he gathered only 18 disposals, so look for the former Crow to bounce back this week and collect 30 or more touches ($2.40).

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Three weeks ago, many had doubts over Port Adelaide as they sat 1-3. Ken Hinkley’s job was under threat as the Power appeared destined for another disappointing year, with an extremely talented list. However, since that moment, wins over the Swans, Dogs and Eagles have completely turned their fortunes around. Last week’s 40-point win against the Eagles in Adelaide was routine in many ways, led by Connor Rozee with 29 disposals and two goals.

Rozee has been far and away the Power’s best player this year, averaging a career high in disposals as well as a goal a game. A first time All-Australian last year, he has continued to develop into a certified star of the competition. Alongside him in the midfield, other big names such as Ollie Wines, Zak Butters and Jason Horne-Francis provide a constant threat to opposition teams, as Port are the second-best side in the competition for clearances.

Although last weekend against the Eagles was a comfortable win, injuries soured the day as the Power lost Todd Marshall (concussion), Mitch Georgiades (knee) and Kane Farrell (cheekbone), who are now all unavailable for the game this weekend. There is also uncertainty surrounding the availability of Charlie Dixon, who missed last week’s game. This leaves a lot of weight on the shoulders of Jeremy Finlayson to head the forward line against the best defence in the competition.

Last time these two sides played each other, the Power prevailed by one point in an extremely low-scoring affair in horrific conditions in Cairns. Although it shouldn’t be as low-scoring this time around, the last four games between these two sides have all gone under the total points line. In a game with the best defence against a heavily undermanned forward-line, under 157.5 total points is expected on the day ($1.88).

St Kilda’s form has been excellent so far, and although Port Adelaide are in decent touch as well, they may struggle on this road trip to Melbourne. The Saints do have to deal with a five-day break, compared to the Power’s six, but this should be a limited factor in the game. St Kilda are favourites for a reason at $1.45.

Key matchup: Steele v Wines

Jack Steele vs Ollie Wines

It’s a treat for the viewer this week as we’ll most likely see a tough midfield battle between 2021 Brownlow Medal winner Ollie Wines and St Kilda captain Jack Steele.

Slightly down on form this year, Wines needs to be up for the challenge if the Power are to get close this weekend. When he is at his best, the 28-year-old bull can be the best player in the competition, finding the footy and consistently hitting teammates in space to progress forwards.

Steele is one of the best two-way players in the competition; he is strong in the contest on the ball, but also regularly in the top 10 tacklers in the AFL. His actions on the field are inspiring to his teammates, and as captain he leads the way every week. The winner of this battle will play a huge role in getting their team on the front foot.

St Kilda v Port Adelaide Rd 7 betting prediction

St Kilda v Port Adelaide AFL same game multi

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