St Kilda v Port Adelaide AFL R16 tips & team news | June 30, 2024

St Kilda v Port Adelaide best bets

St Kilda v Port Adelaide match preview

The inconsistent St Kilda will be out to steady the ship when they host the struggling Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium this Sunday in round 16 of the 2024 AFL season.

After notching a pair of wins over the Eagles and Suns, the Saints were no match for the Lions at the Gabba in round 14. They did show some fighting spirit, though, closing late to lose by just 20 points to a much-improved Brisbane side.

The knock on the Saints all season has been their inability to kick enough points, and they rank 15th in the AFL on that vital metric. They rank 12th for inside 50s and have struggled to move the ball forward with sufficient penetration and fluidity.

St Kilda defender Zaine Cordy has been dropped after touching the ball twice in the loss to the Lions. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera returns on the half-back line, while Jimmy Webster, Ryan Byrnes and Cooper Sharman have all been added to the extended bench.

Port Adelaide slumped to their third straight loss in round 15, capitulating at home to go down to the Lions by 79 points. This leaves the Power clinging to eighth spot due to their slightly superior percentage to the Demons.

Port have failed to kick more than 73 points during this losing streak and scored a woeful 6.15 against GWS in round 14. Poor goalkicking is often indicative of deeper confidence issues, and coach Ken Hinkley needs to reignite his key players if this slump is to be arrested.

Port are missing key defender Esava Ratugolea and young midfielder Jase Burgoyne due to injury, while livewire forward Willie Rioli failed a fitness test during the week. Travis Boak returns in the midfield, while Will Lorenz is set to make his AFL debut. Dylan Williams, Lachie Jones and Dante Visentini fill out the extended squad.

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St Kilda v Port Adelaide betting strategy

It is hard to get too excited about the fortunes of either of these sides, but the Saints appear to be travelling slightly better than the sliding Power. It shapes to be a scrappy encounter, and St Kilda to prevail by 39 points or less appears the obvious selection at $2.25 on Unibet.

With both teams struggling in front of goal, the total line has been set at a miserly 162.5 points. It is hard to imagine that either team will break the shackles and post a big score, so the under looks the smart bet at $1.88 with Bet365.

St Kilda midfielder Bradley Hill is averaging 21.2 disposals per game this season, and there is no reason to believe he will not be able to match this level of output. He has been afforded the freedom to roam the ground by coach Ross Lyon, and there is decent value in backing Hill to have 20 or more touches at $1.91 on Neds.

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