St Kilda v Melbourne AFL betting tips & best odds – July 8, 2023

St Kilda Saints v Melbourne Demons prediction & tips

St Kilda v Melbourne AFL preview

This Saturday night, the St Kilda Saints face off against the Melbourne Demons at Marvel Stadium. Both in the hunt for top-four positions, this one promises to be a physical contest between two of the best defensive teams in the 2023 AFL Premiership.

Last weekend, St Kilda made their way across to Perth to take on the struggling West Coast Eagles, narrowly winning by eight points. Following the Eagles’ 171-point loss to Sydney the week before, St Kilda were expected to win comfortably. Instead, West Coast led for most of the day and gave the Saints a real scare.

Although a disappointing effort, the Saints did enough to hold fifth spot on the AFL ladder, one place below their opposition this weekend.

The Melbourne Demons travelled to Alice Springs last weekend and lost to the GWS Giants by two points in a low-scoring contest in miserable conditions. The Demons have only themselves to blame, kicking 5.15 while having eight more scoring shots than the Giants.

The loss leaves the Demons holding onto their top four spot solely by percentage. A win against the rivalling Saints will help create a bigger gap between themselves and the trailing pack.

Both sides come into this game down on form and looking to turn their fortunes around. The Saints have lost two of their last three matches, with their win against the Eagles last week not providing much confidence.

The Demons have lost their last two matches, both against teams outside the top eight. However, they have won their past three matches against the Saints.

With Melbourne losing Bailey Fritsch to injury, potentially for the rest of the home-and-away season, expect tall forward Jacob Van Rooyen to return after kicking four goals in the VFL last week. The Dees have also confirmed debutant Taj Woewodin, while midfielder Clayton Oliver is unlikely to return.

For the St Kilda Saints, there are concerns over the availability of midfield pair Seb Ross and Bradley Hill, who both suffered knee injuries last weekend. This gives Zak Jones a chance to play his first game of the season, after collecting 35 touches in the VFL. Key defender Josh Battle is also a confirmed out under concussion protocols, with either Tom Highmore or Zaine Cordy expected to come in.

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St Kilda v Melbourne betting strategy

Despite their poor form over the last two weeks, the Demons should be too strong for the Saints on Saturday night. When playing well, they are one of the top teams in the AFL, shown by their win over Collingwood in round 13. Favourites in this one, we like the Demons to win at $1.49 with PlayUp.

For the Saints this season, the impact of Jack Sinclair has been essential to their success. Typically lining up on the half-back flank, Sinclair has recently been played through the middle in an attempt to get the ball moving quickly out of the contest. Averaging 32.25 disposals over his last four games, look for this form to continue as he collects 30 or more touches at $1.66 with Neds.

The Dees and Saints are both ranked among the top three defensive teams in the AFL, so expect a low-scoring contest on Saturday night. Additionally, Melbourne’s last seven games have all gone under the total points line. Throwing in the loss of Melbourne’s top scorer this season, Bailey Fritsch, under 159.5 total points is the obvious play at $1.90 with Palmerbet.

Key matchup: Max King v Steven May

Max King vs Steven May

The key target for the Saints up forward, the pressure is on Max King after only one goal across his last two games. After a positive start following his return from injury, his poor form has aligned with the fortunes of his team. If the Saints are going to win this one, King will need to be at the centre of it.

Steven May will be out to do everything possible to make it another difficult day for St Kilda’s marquee forward. With a record of keeping the best forwards in the game quiet this season, expect nothing less from the two-time All-Australian, who is pushing his case for a third consecutive blazer.

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