St Kilda v GWS Giants AFL elimination final betting tips & odds

St Kilda v GWS Giants EF best bets

Saints v Giants elimination final preview

On Saturday afternoon, the GWS Giants head down to the MCG as they take on the St Kilda Saints in the second elimination final of the AFL 2023 post-season.

The Saints finished their home-and-away campaign travelling up to Brisbane as they fell to the Lions by 12 points in a low-scoring contest. Sitting behind for most of the day, the Lions inaccuracy kept the Saints in the match as they got within one point in the fourth quarter. Ultimately, the final score flattered the Saints, who conceded 12 more scoring shots.

After being written off all season, the Saints have now secured a home final for the first time since 2020. In his first season back coaching the Saints, Ross Lyon has turned the Saints into the top defensive team in the competition, showing that their game plan can make up for their lack of star talent.

READ: AFL FINALS WEEK 1 PREVIEW & PREDICTIONS

The GWS Giants snuck their way into the finals by beating the Carlton Blues by 32 points in the final match of the home and away season. After trailing at quarter-time, the Giants proceeded to win every quarter, including a run of seven unanswered goals in the second half. Two late goals from Carlton ruined the Giants chances of jumping the Saints on the ladder due to percentage and, as a result, have to travel to Melbourne this weekend.

After going in and out of the top eight throughout the final rounds of the season, the Giants put together an excellent last fortnight to finish seventh on the ladder. With a multitude of star players across every line of the field, the Giants are a danger side in this finals series.

The Saints defensive stocks are set to receive a boost this weekend as key pairing Josh Battle and Dougal Howard are both available for selection. Veteran Seb Ross is also a chance to return after missing round 24 with a hamstring injury.

Star key defender Sam Taylor and young wingman Finn Callaghan are expected to return for the Giants this week, but small forward Toby Bedford looks likely to miss due to suspension unless his appeal is successful.

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St Kilda v GWS AFL finals predictions

This match is being hosted at the MCG rather than the Saints’ usual home of Marvel Stadium, which may affect their uncontested play style due to differing conditions compared to under the roof.

Both sides come into this match with fluctuating form, each winning three of their last five matches. The Giants seem to have more difference-makers in their side, headlined by All-Australian captain Toby Greene, so we are taking the slight favourites at $1.78 with Bet365.

With the considerable defensive inclusions for both sides, we are expecting a low-scoring contest played under the well-known finals pressure. The defensive prowess of the Saints has been talked about all season, but the Giants are also an impressive defensive outfit.

GWS’s key defensive pairing of Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley, with the additional help of Connor Idun and Harry Himmelburg, present a daunting task for the Saints, who have the fourth-worst attack in the AFL. Expect this match to go under the total points line of 155.5 at $1.90 odds.

Following his best season for the Saints in 2023, midfielder Brad Crouch looks set to continue his good form into the finals. Leading the Saints for contested possessions this season, Crouch will be around the ball throughout the match. Averaging 27.4 disposals a game, we are backing Crouch in for a big match with 30 or more disposals at $2.35 with top AFL bookmakers.

Saints v GWS key matchup: Max King v Sam Taylor

Max King vs Sam Taylor

Max King will be the primary target inside 50 for the Saints. With their excellent pack of small forwards, King will be important in not just kicking goals, but also in bringing the ball to ground.

Taking him on this weekend is one of the best key defenders in the AFL, Sam Taylor. With a resume of keeping the best forwards in the competition quiet each week, Taylor works alongside his GWS teammates to kill contests while also being able to propel the ball forward. If Taylor can get on top of King, the Saints will struggle to get on the scoreboard.

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