St Kilda v Essendon AFL betting tips & odds | Round 20, 2024

St Kilda v Essendon best bets

St Kilda v Essendon R20 match preview

Essendon will be looking to keep their finals hopes alive this Saturday afternoon as they face St Kilda at Marvel Stadium in round 20 of the 2024 AFL Premiership season.

Despite their recent poor form, the Bombers enter this clash as slight favourites at $1.78 with Unibet. The Saints are $2.07 outsiders, while the line is set at just 3.5 points.

Last Friday, Essendon suffered their second straight loss, falling to the Adelaide Crows by two points at Marvel Stadium. In a high-scoring affair, the Bombers led for most of the final term but fell apart late as they conceded the final three goals of the match.

After sitting inside the top four just two weeks ago, Essendon have now dropped to eighth on the AFL ladder. At $2.20 to make the top eight, leading online bookies have their doubts about the Bombers’ finals chances.

Essendon coach Brad Scott will be forced to make at least one change this week, as in-form midfielder Jye Caldwell was concussed against the Crows. An ideal replacement would be Darcy Parish, who is a test to return from a calf injury; otherwise, either Ben Hobbs or Elijah Tsatas is the likely inclusion.

St Kilda secured a dominant victory last Saturday, beating the West Coast Eagles by 72 points at Marvel Stadium. Keeping the Eagles to just six goals for the day, the Saints won every quarter in their biggest victory of the season. Tim Membrey led the way with five goals, while Jack Sinclair and Jack Steele both had 31 disposals.

Sitting in 15th place, Ross Lyon’s men are ruled out of finals contention. However, with two wins in their last three matches, they are a dangerous proposition to top-eight hopefuls.

The Saints will be without wingman Liam Henry for the rest of the season after he suffered a knee injury against the Eagles, which may see rookie Arie Schoenmaker return to the side.

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St Kilda v Essendon AFL betting picks

Essendon have shown their defensive vulnerabilities in recent weeks, conceding an average of 99 points in the last month. Conversely, St Kilda have conceded an average of 64 points per game over that period and have won three of their last four matches at Marvel Stadium. Expect the Saints to turn this match into a cagey affair, securing an upset win by less than 40 points at $2.45.

Half-back Jack Sinclair has been at his consistent best in 2024 despite the Saints’ poor form. The 29-year-old has collected over 30 disposals on four occasions in the last six weeks, while he had 30 touches when these sides met in round three. Back Sinclair to reach the mark once again at $2.15 with top Australian bookmakers.

Essendon wingman Xavier Duursma has emerged as a goal threat recently, with three majors in his last three matches. He has kicked eight goals in 13 games this season, including one back in round three. Duursma offers great value to hit the scoreboard once again at $2.25 with BoomBet.

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