St Kilda v Essendon AFL betting preview & best bets – 1/4/2023

Before the 2023 AFL season commenced, not many would have predicted that St Kilda and Essendon would both enter Saturday’s clash at the MCG undefeated. The Saints come into this game after notching an impressive victory over the Bulldogs, while the Bombers came away victors in a four-quarter arm wrestle with the Suns.

What can be said about the St Kilda Saints to begin the season aside from ‘wow’? They are a side that no one really knew what to make of before the season began. Were they going to continue declining as the new crop found their feet, or were they going to rise above under the guidance of new coach Ross Lyon?

It appears the latter has taken effect, as the Saints have already knocked over two top-eight finishers from last year in Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs. What is more impressive is that they have achieved these wins with an injury list of 14 players, including their three best forwards. Saturday night’s game will be made even more difficult for the Saints due to losing captain, and star player, Jack Steele to a shoulder injury.

According to vice captain Callum Wilkie, the Saints have been employing the ‘next man up’ mantra, but they will need more than belief if they are going to beat a fit and firing Bombers outfit. With the Dons paying $2.19 at the top betting sites, it’s more than worth a punt.

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The decision to back the Essendon Bombers goes beyond the Saints’ injury concerns. The Dons have begun the season playing a brand of footy that shows flair and intensity around the ground. Granted, they have beaten two teams that are expected to be below the eight at the end of the year, but their fans would be delighted with the way their team has come out of the blocks.

That is not to say that the lid is off for the Bombers and the top eight. Even new coach Brad Scott explained that this is a process that may take years.

Led by new captain Zach Merrett, the Bombers midfield has been humming. While not exactly dominating contested ball, the Dons have been annihilating their opponents on the spread and claiming a plethora of uncontested possessions.

The wide-open spaces of the MCG will play into this strength, with Darcy Parish being the main beneficiary. An elite midfielder, Parish thrives on creating space for himself – and, by extension, his team – and if he is to get the space he wants, then 30 or more disposals won’t be stretch for a player of his calibre ($1.50).

If the Saints are to get over the line against the Bombers, then their forwards will have to be buzzing with every opportunity they get. With so many of their key forwards out, St Kilda have had to rely on their mosquito fleet of smalls.

One such player to enjoy being a target inside forward 50 has been young gun Mitchito Owens. In his first two games, Owens has scored three and two goals, respectively. Fully expect this impressive form to continue on Saturday night, with the talented forward kicking at least two goals ($1.88).

Key matchup: Brad Crouch vs Will Setterfield

Brad Crouch vs Will Setterfield

At the end of last year, Will Setterfield’s career appeared to be at a crossroads. He never really lived up to his potential at GWS and Carlton, and he was thrown a lifeline by Essendon.

Since his move to Tullamarine, Setterfield has been brilliant. He has been playing the contested bull, creating opportunities for his outside mids, and even finding time to kick a goal during his hard work.

Brad Crouch is a player who is no stranger to the contested game, but with Steele being out, a lot of the load will fall onto his shoulders. If the Saints are to win, Crouch will have to at his contested best to ensure that Essendon don’t have midfield superiority.

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