St Kilda v Brisbane AFL R21 betting tips | Sunday, August 4

St Kilda v Brisbane best bets

Round 21 preview: St Kilda v Brisbane

St Kilda will be out to spoil another party when they host the Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium for the final Sunday fixture in round 21 of the 2024 AFL season.

With the home-ground advantage, the Saints have been kept safe at $2.55 odds. Major betting sites have set the line at around 10.5 points in Brisbane’s favour.

St Kilda are out of the finals race but can still play a spoiler role, as they demonstrated against the Bombers in round 20. Ross Lyon’s men showed no regard for Essendon’s September aspirations, crushing them by 53 points.

The Saints have won three of their last four games and might prove a headache as the Lions try to lock in a top-four spot. These sides were closely matched in round 14 at the Gabba when only a fourth-quarter burst got the Lions home.

St Kilda will be without midfielder Hunter Clark due to injury. Mattaes Phillipou has been named in his place, with on-baller Paddy Dow, ruck Tom Campbell and defender Angus McLennan filling out the extended squad.

Brisbane kept their winning run going in round 20 with a comfortable 28-point victory over the Suns. The victory has catapulted them into second spot on the AFL ladder, and most online bookmakers now have the Lions sharing premiership favouritism with Sydney.

Brisbane’s statistics tell the story of their hot form. They rank third in the AFL for clearances and first for kicks, marks and inside 50s.

Harris Andrews returns from concussion to lead the Brisbane backline, with Conor McKenna dropping out. Defender James Madden, ruck Darcy Fort and midfielder Bruce Reville are named on the extended bench.

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St Kilda v Brisbane betting predictions

This game looks set to go down to the wire. Now that the Saints have hit form, they will be a dangerous proposition for any team. Expect a narrow margin either way, but the value is with St Kilda to win by 39 points or less at $2.95 on Unibet.

The Saints have struggled in the scoring department this season but kicked 108 points against Essendon, 113 against West Coast and 84 against Sydney. If they can keep this trend going, expect the total score to eclipse 167.5 points for a $1.90 return with most AFL bookies.

Young St Kilda midfielder Darcy Wilson is enjoying a productive first season with 19 appearances in red and white. He hit the scoreboard in the round 19 win over the Eagles and shapes as a likely goalkicker here at $1.90 with Neds.

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