St Kilda v Brisbane AFL betting tips & odds – Round 15, 2023

St Kilda v Brisbane predictions & best bets

St Kilda v Brisbane AFL R15 match preview

This Friday night, the Brisbane Lions travel down to Melbourne to face St Kilda in an AFL clash that could prove pivotal in the race for a top-four finish.

The St Kilda Saints faced off against the Tigers last week, going down by 20 points in torrential conditions at the MCG. The Saints started strong but struggled to convert from their inside 50s, as the Richmond defence was able to clear the ball too easily. On the other hand, the Tigers were able to lock the ball inside their forward 50, allowing their midfielders to get forward and hit the scoreboard.

That loss leaves the Saints a game and percentage outside the top four in fifth place on the AFL ladder. The defensive structure that seemed impenetrable at times is now showing cracks, meaning their low scores are not enough to win games of footy. Against the Lions this week, significant offensive improvement is needed if they are to pull off an upset.

The Lions faced the Sydney Swans up in Brisbane last week, getting home by 16 points in a routine win. Down for much of the first half, the Lions kept the Swans at a comfortable distance in the second half and never looked like losing. In the end the scoreboard flattered the Swans, as the Lions will feel a missed opportunity for some much-needed percentage due to their inaccuracy in front of goal.

St Kilda v Brisbane betting strategy

After being held goalless last week, expect Brisbane forward Charlie Cameron to bounce back to his problematic best. If the Lions tall forwards are able to bring the ball to ground inside 50, Cameron will be there creating chances for himself by putting space between himself and his direct matchup. We’re backing Cameron for two or more goals at $1.51 with the best online bookmakers.

In what shapes as a tough midfield battle, Brad Crouch looms as the man to watch for the Saints. The former Crow has gathered 25 or more disposals in four out of his last five games and also attends the most centre bounces of the St Kilda midfielders, meaning he is always playing around the ball. Expect Crouch to continue on this form with 25 or more disposals at $1.40 with Marantelli Bet.

The big question in this game is whether the Lions can win away from home. With all four of their losses this season coming on the road, this one shapes as a real statement game to prove they can win away against decent opposition. While the Saints have shown they can compete with the best teams in the AFL, their misfiring forwards are proving costly. The Lions are the better side and offer good value as $1.80 favourites.

Key matchup: Steele v Dunkley

Jack Steele vs Josh Dunkley

St Kilda captain Jack Steele is one of the most hard-working midfielders in the AFL and impacts the game in a variety of ways. Playing mostly as an inside midfielder, Steele works both ways, collecting the footy and tackling at will. He also poses a threat in the uncontested game, regularly breaking off his opponent with the ability to also slide inside 50 and hit the scoreboard.

Brisbane Lions recruit Josh Dunkley offers much of the same to his team, with his adaptability to different situations proving a vital asset. The former Bulldog uses his size both in the middle and in marking situations to his advantage, while also working as a solid defensive midfielder. Dunkley barely has a quiet game and when his impact gets out of hand, it goes a long way to the Lions winning the match.

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