Roosters vs Rabbitohs best bets & multi tips – NRL Finals Week 1

The oldest rivalry in rugby league will pen another chapter when the Sydney Roosters host the South Sydney Rabbitohs at Allianz Stadium on Sunday in the first week of the 2022 NRL finals.

The two sides faced each other less than a week ago with the Roosters running away with a 26-16 win, but history has shown this situation can produce an outcome many don’t see coming.

There have been a few examples of teams playing each other in the last round of the season before meeting in a Week 1 final.

The most recent example was between these two clubs in 2019, when the Rabbitohs won in the last round of the season before being blown off the park 30-6.

In 2009 the Eels purposely put the handbrake on against the Dragons and lost 36-0 before rebounding a week later to win 25-12 as an eighth-placed team.

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In 2007 the Cowboys and Bulldogs found themselves in the same situation and the Cowboys won both games in Townsville by six and two points, respectively.

The last of those examples straight away jumps out as an outlier because the Cowboys are 9-0 in finals games in Townsville, while they are 18-3 all-time in the month of September.

All of the 2019 and 2009 occurrences were played in Sydney, where neither team had any drastic weather conditions or travel to contend with, so they provide the best blueprint of where punters should be placing their money.

It also indicated that perhaps we should be looking at South Sydney at the 13+ margin despite how dispirited they played last week.

The $5.50 at Marantelli Bet is a cracking price when you consider they will get Campbell Graham and Damien Cook back with Cam Murray returning to full-game duties, which makes them a much stiffer proposition.

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The Roosters will be without Joseph Manu, who picked up a calf injury in the win last week, and it could hamper their attack. He is defensively the key man for the Roosters in this matchup at right centre because of Souths’ lethal left side, and with ball in hand he is hard to handle.

The Roosters performance last week was all about doing enough to get the win and lock in a home final, but it was evident in the second half they put the handbrake on knowing there is more at stake.

One thing they did do extremely well was nullify the influence of Latrell Mitchell, but a debut finals appearance for the Rabbitohs means much more than a meaningless regular-season game.

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Latrell at $2.65 is fantastic value to score a try, having scored five in his seven finals appearances during his career. He also has six in seven for New South Wales, indicating he rises to the occasion – and with that, Souths will follow.

The Roosters showed their hand somewhat last week with how they picked apart the right-edge defence of South Sydney. Angus Crichton and Luke Keary had a field day, and Crichton is still around $4 with most online bookies to get across the stripe, so get on.

Tedesco at $2.25 is also good value. His record in big games is absurd, so any time you can double your investment, you have to do it.

Key matchup: Tedesco vs Mitchell

They won premierships together, but now James Tedesco and Latrell Mitchell face off in a finals contest for the first time – and that alone is worth the price of admission. Whoever gets the most time and space will guide their team to a win. They are the difference makers.

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