Richmond v Sydney AFL tips, odds & value bets – July 6, 2023

Tigers v Swans predictions & best bets

Richmond v Sydney AFL R17 match preview

To kick off round 17 of the 2023 AFL season, the Richmond Tigers face off against the Sydney Swans at the MCG in a must-win clash for both sides to keep their season alive.

The Tigers travelled up to the Gabba last weekend and lost in convincing fashion to the Brisbane Lions by 81 points. Trailing all game, the Tigers showed little fight as they lost every quarter. Adding to the disappointment was a hamstring injury to half-back Jayden Short that is expected to keep him out for at least a month of footy.

The Swans hosted the Geelong Cats last weekend in a low-scoring contest that finished in a draw. Kicking 6.18, the Swans have only themselves to blame; they didn’t capitalise upon their periods of dominance, missing several easy shots at goal. On a positive note, the signs were there for the Swans, who led the Cats in almost every key statistical category.

Both Richmond and Sydney now sit on 26 points, separated only by percentage, and are a game and a half out of the top eight. A loss for either side this week makes it hard for them to make a finals tilt, whereas the other side is right in the mix for those lower top-eight spots.

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Richmond v Sydney betting strategy

The Sydney Swans have won their last three matches against the Tigers, including an earlier meeting this season where they saluted by 44 points. Seemingly over their injury worries, the Swans come into this game in much better shape than the Tigers, who have absentees across the ground and will play two debutants this week – Jacob Bauer and Sam Banks. On a positive note for the Tigers, star midfielders Dustin Martin and Dion Prestia are both a chance to return.

Previous trips to the MCG this season have not been kind to the Swans, with both matches resulting in losses – albeit against top-four sides. However, the Tigers’ home form this year hasn’t been great, with only three wins from their nine matches at the MCG.

Coming in as underdogs, the Swans should be too strong for the Tigers across the ground. At $2.23 with Marantelli Bet, they show good value for the win.

Young midfielder Errol Gulden has had a standout campaign in a struggling Swans side. The 20-year-old is always sought-after by teammates, who trust his decision making and kicking ability going inside 50. Averaging 28.3 disposals over the last three weeks, expect more of the same on Thursday night as Gulden racks up 25 or more touches ($1.60).

Another player having a breakout season for the Swans is key forward Logan McDonald. Now the main target inside 50 with Lance Franklin sidelined, McDonald uses his size to impact the contest and rates as one of the most accurate kicks at goal in the competition. With six majors in his last two weeks, look for his form to continue as he kicks two or more goals at $1.90 with the top AFL bookmakers.

Key matchup: Bolton v Cunningham

Shai Bolton vs Harry Cunningham

Richmond’s most dangerous small forward, Shai Bolton is always a threat to opposition defences with his opportunistic goal sense. Splitting minutes between the forward line and the midfield, Bolton’s versatility creates a hard matchup as he takes his defender into the contest, or his midfield opponent into one-on-one situations in the forward line.

With speed and experience, Sydney’s Harry Cunningham matches up on the opposition’s most dangerous small forward each week and rarely lets them get too far out of reach. Keeping Charlie Cameron and Tyson Stengle quiet over the last two weeks, he’ll be looking to do the same against Bolton in this one.

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