Richmond v Sydney AFL Round 5 best bets & odds – 14/4/2023

This Friday night, Adelaide Oval plays host to a blockbuster AFL clash between the Sydney Swans and the Richmond Tigers on the second day of a packed ‘Gather Round’. Both sides come into the contest hoping to avenge defeats from last week in order to ensure they stay in touch with the top eight.

The Swans last week lost in heartbreaking fashion to Port Adelaide in a clash that will be remembered for an Ollie Florent shot after the siren that fell agonisingly short. In a game where the Swans kicked the first four goals and lead by 20 points 10 minutes into the last quarter, they will feel as though last week was one that got away.

Last year’s grand-finalists have been disappointing in the first two rounds, where there have been clear periods where both Melbourne and Port Adelaide have been able to rapidly string together unanswered goals. Equally, in periods where the Swans have had the momentum, they have been unable to seize it, with inaccurate kicking limiting their advantage.

The loss of Lance Franklin this week will provide an opportunity for young Sydney spearheads Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey to lead this forward line and provide a glimpse into what this team will look like going into the future. In round two, they combined for nine goals against a depleted Hawthorn; however, this game provides a greater test in a Friday night blockbuster against an experienced Richmond backline.

Richmond have been erratic at times this season and that was no different last week, where they fell in disappointing fashion to the Western Bulldogs. A game where they lead for a large portion of the second half, they relinquished a three-quarter time lead to lose by five points.

A positive note for the Tigers this year has been the form of their main ball-carriers off half-back, Liam Baker and Daniel Rioli. Across the season, they both average over 24 disposals while carrying the ball forward, providing spark to a team whose midfield lacks leg speed. This could prove a challenge to the Swans in terms of rapid end-to-end ball movement.

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Defeats for both teams weren’t the only disappointments, as a string of casualties to tall players have depleted both sides for this weekend’s match. The Swans lost both Paddy and Tom McCartin to failed HIAs last week, meaning they will be forced to sit out this week under the AFL’s concussion protocols. The Swans have also lost superstar forward Buddy Franklin due to knee soreness, therefore opportunities may arise to Hayden McLean and potential debutant Will Gould to cover the positions.

Equally, the Tigers have lost their skipper Toby Nankervis after undergoing ankle surgery, as well as leading goal-kicker Tom Lynch with a broken foot. Expect Jack Riewoldt to return from being rested last week, while Ben Miller has been covering the ruck duties in the VFL and appears the logical replacement to assist Samson Ryan.

Chad Warner looked a class above last weekend, with 30 disposals and two goals, his run and dash almost singlehandedly carried the Swans across the line. This is just a continuation of form for Warner, who last year was a first-time member of the All-Australian squad and has continued to improve this season. In last year’s equivalent game, Warner led all players on the ground for disposals, and as such we can expect him to get a lot of the football once again, looking at 25 or more disposals for the young bull ($1.96).

The two sides rank second and third respectively in tackles for the AFL, so a high-pressure contest is expected. As well as this, rain is forecasted in Adelaide settling in on Friday night, which in turn could create a slower game with an even greater amount of contested football. Given these factors, it would be hard to see the points total going above 169.5 ($1.88).

This game is poised as a contested game with both sides keen to make up for losses in their previous two games. The Sydney midfield appears to be a class above that of the Tigers – who, without Nankervis, may struggle to win the ball out of the middle in what could prove to be a game of territory in the wet. As such, we expect the Swans to win ($1.52).

Key matchup: Taranto v Mills

Tim Taranto vs Callum Mills

A heavily contested game is predicted for Friday night and these two midfield bulls will be placed at the centre of it.

Tim Taranto has taken no time to settle in at Richmond, leading the Tigers for disposals and tackles. However, his ball use has left a lot to be desired, leaving it as a major point of improvement in his game and a point to prove this weekend.

Sydney’s best-and-fairest winner in 2022, Callum Mills has had a solid start to the year but is yet to completely take over a game like he did at points last year. This game poises as the perfect opportunity. Renowned for his two-way running, Mills has the ability to not only gather football himself, but also limit his direct opponent’s impact on the game.

With both teams lacking their first-choice ruckman, the impact these two have out of the centre will be a major factor in determining the winner of this match.

Richmond v Sydney AFL betting prediction

Richmond v Sydney Rd 5 same game multi

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Davo

1 year ago

Great wrap up. Not sure how Swan’s defence will cope with the loss of the McCartin brother’s.

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