Richmond v Carlton AFL Rd 1 betting tips & odds – March 16, 2023

The 2023 AFL Premiership kicks off this Thursday night at the MCG with the now-traditional season opener between Richmond and Carlton.

Richmond were comfortably beaten by Melbourne in the pre-season. The Demons led by 40 points at the main break and kept the momentum rolling to close out an easy 50-point victory.

The Tigers were weak in several key categories, including their intercept marking, which failed to a yield a single goal. This was one their strong suits in 2022.

Richmond were also exposed by the Melbourne big men, with Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy proving too much for the Tigers to handle. The performance raises question marks that can only be answered by a proper game of AFL.

Carlton were also soundly beaten in their pre-season clash, losing by 43 points to the Swans on the back of some errant goalkicking (7.12). The Blues were also beaten at the centre bounce and failed to interrupt Sydney’s sweeping ball-movement from their backline.

Carlton beat the Tigers by 25 points in round one of 2022 and will be looking for a similar start to their 2023 campaign. They may face a hangover from their dramatic climax to last season, but coach Michael Voss might have anticipated such a situation and adjusted preparations accordingly.

Key matchup: Liam Baker v Sam Docherty

Richmond utility Liam Baker was the standout of the team’s pre-season match with 36 disposals, six marks, 18 kicks, and one goal. At 25 years old, Baker looks to be hitting his prime footballing years. He averaged 19.1 disposals in 2022 and is expected to improve on those returns in the coming seasons. Baker’s versatility allows him to roam across the ground hunting for the ball and kicking the occasional six-pointer, making him a handful for any opponent.

After brushes with cancer in 2020 and 2021, Carlton defender Sam Docherty had a massive bounce-back year in 2022. He played all 22 games and averaged 28.4 disposals and three tackles per game. Docherty was his team’s best performer in the pre-season, grabbing 34 disposals and landing four tackles in the loss to Sydney. His leadership in the back half will be critical if the Blues are to make the top eight this season.

Richmond v Carlton Rd 1 betting strategy

This game looks close to a coin flip and the line has been set at a very skinny 6.5 points. Richmond are favoured on the strength of their available players, while Carlton will be missing some of their stars including Sam Walsh and Zac Williams. We are tipping the Tigers -6.5 points, but with only moderate confidence. Early games are difficult to gauge and both teams fell short of the mark in their practice matches.

Richmond v Carlton Rd 1 same game multi

For value-hunters, we are linking Richmond -6.5 points, into Jack Riewoldt anytime goalkicker, into Liam Baker +20 disposals. This combo will return $4.28 with Ladbrokes.

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