Richmond v Carlton AFL betting tips & top odds | Round 1, 2025

Richmond vs Carlton best bets

AFL Round 1: Richmond v Carlton match preview

Carlton will be looking to kick off their 2025 AFL Premiership campaign with a win over Richmond at the MCG this Thursday night, and top bookmakers have the Blues as strong favourites to do so.

Patrick Cripps and co. are almost unbackable at $1.05 in the head-to-head market at BetOnline, with the Tigers paying as much as $11.50 to spring an early upset.

Richmond are widely tipped to finish bottom of the AFL ladder this season, with leading AFL betting sites giving them odds of $1.18 to win the wooden spoon.

After coming last in 2024, Richmond’s experienced core of Dustin Martin, Daniel Rioli, Liam Baker, Shai Bolton, Dylan Grimes, Marlion Pickett and Jack Graham all left the club, pushing the Tigers straight into a rebuild.

Heavy defeats to West Coast and Collingwood in preseason have not improved Richmond’s outlook in 2025, and Tigers fans could be in for another long year.

On the other hand, expectations are high for Carlton, who start the season with strong premiership odds of $10 at BetOnline.

Last season was a letdown for the Blues, who crawled into the finals with an injury-hit squad and were promptly dispatched by the eventual premiers, Brisbane.

While Carlton are not without personnel issues heading into 2025, their list is loaded with talent and they should be in the mix come September.

Richmond v Carlton AFL Round 1 team news

Richmond have named three debutants for this clash, with 2024 first-round draftees Sam Lalor, Luke Trainor and Harry Armstrong suiting up.

However, there are plenty of injuries for the Tigers, including Josh Gibcus (knee), Dion Prestia (Achilles), Noah Balta (suspension), Hugo Ralphsmith (hamstring), Josh Smillie (hamstring) and Tylar Young (knee).

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The Blues also have key players missing, headlined by star forward Charlie Curnow (knee). No.3 draft pick Jagga Smith and defender Nic Newman suffered year-ending knee injuries in preseason, while Marc Pittonet (calf), Alex Cincotta (hip) and Elijah Hollands (personal) will also miss.

Jack Silvagni will play a new role in defence after missing the entirety of the 2024 season, while fellow father-son pick Lucas Camporeale is set to make his debut. Former Giant Nick Haynes is also expected to play his first game for Carlton.

Richmond v Carlton betting predictions – AFL Round 1

With such drastic changes in the offseason, it seems unlikely that Richmond will be competitive in this clash. Carlton should be too strong across all parts of the field, leaving the question as to how much they will win by. With the youngest side in the AFL, expect Richmond to fade late in the game, with the margin blowing out past the line of 50.5 points at $1.91 with top Australian betting sites.

As one of the few experienced players on the Richmond list, Jayden Short is expected to play a key role throughout the year. The half-back will be very busy in defence, while he is tipped to take kick-ins — always a good stat to consider for disposal markets. Short collected 25 or more touches in four of his last five matches in 2024, so back him to continue racking up the footy with 30 or more disposals at $4.50 with major AFL bookmakers.

In the absence of Charlie Curnow up forward for Carlton, expect Harry McKay to have a day out. The Blues should have plenty of opportunities all game, while the absence of Josh Gibcus and Noah Balta leaves the Richmond defence even further stretched. As the primary target in the Carlton forward line, back McKay to kick four or more goals at $2.90 with Bet365.

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