Ribas v Dern: Main event analysis & betting tips, UFC Fight Night
| Mackenzie Dern v Amanda Ribas Latest Odds & Fight Info | |
|---|---|
| Main Event odds | Dern +160 at Marantelli Bet | Ribas -208.33 at Marantelli Bet |
| When | Sunday, January 12 – main card from 11am AEDT |
| Where | UFC APEX – Las Vegas, United States |
| Watch Live | Foxtel, Kayo, UFC Fight Pass |
UFC Fight Night returns for the new year with a top 10 women’s strawweight bout from the Apex in Las Vegas between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas this Saturday.
These fighters met in 2019 with Ribas prevailing via the scorecards and the Brazilian has been installed as a warm betting favourite to replicate this outcome.
Dern v Ribas UFC Fight Night main event preview
Mackenzie Dernvs 
Amanda Ribas |
| 14-5-0 | MMA record | 13-5-0 |
| 31 | Age | 31 |
| 5’4” | Height | 5’4” |
| 115lbs | Weight | 115lbs |
| 63” | Reach | 66” |
| USA | Nationality | Brazil |
Mackenzie Dern (14-5-0) has produced a mixed run of results in recent years, recording three wins and four losses since 2021. The 31-year-old is coming off a last-start victory over Loopy Godinez, following losses to Amanda Lemos and Jessica Andrade. Dern’s wins are split evenly between submissions and decisions, and she has never scored a knockout in the UFC octagon. She enters this contest as a drifting betting outsider with leading UFC bookmakers.
Dern can appear uncertain during the standup portions of her bouts, often rushing into danger without the necessary defensive posture. As a black belt in BJJ, her best work is done on the mat, but the American has worked with a team of striking coaches to correct this area of her game. While her power has improved somewhat, she can still lose balance when trading blows on the feet. Dern boasts a solid chin and a deep cardio tank as evidenced by her winning record with the judges.
Amanda Ribas (13-5-0) carries an identical recent record with three wins and four losses since 2021. The Brazilian is coming off a close loss to former UFC champ Rose Namajunas following an impressive KO win over Luana Pinheiro. The 31-year-old has bounced between the strawweight and flyweight divisions but appears more physically dangerous at 115 pounds.
Ribas is also a skilled BJJ practitioner, and the grappling exchanges should be worth the price of admission alone. The betting favourite hits with superior striking power and has registered four wins via knockout during a lengthy professional career. On the flip side, she does provide counterpunching opportunities that were capitalised upon during a 2023 KO loss to Maycee Barber.
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Dern v Ribas UFC Fight Night predictions
Ribas produced a blueprint to defeat Dern when they met in 2019, winning every round to secure a comprehensive decision win. Neither fighter has made huge strides since then, so the safest bet appears to be a replica of that outcome. Dern may prove dangerous during the occasional grappling scramble, but Ribas should be able to output her across 25 minutes.
We are tipping Ribas to produce the superior output, land the occasional takedown, and have her hand raised to kick off the new year with a decision win over a brave Dern.
