Race for NRL finals spots one of the tightest in history

With Origin packed away for another year and the Shield staying in Queensland, the mad scramble for NRL finals spots is on in earnest with any one of 10 teams having a mathematical chance of winning the minor premiership.

Eight rounds remain in season 2023 which is proving to be one of, if not the tightest and the most exciting premiership race in history.

Penrith and Brisbane currently head into round 20 this weekend on 28 points.

But poised on their hammer just one win back on 26 points are Cronulla, Melbourne, and Canberra all locked in the battle for the minor premiership and top four spots which carry double chances.

Breathing down their necks are the vastly improved Warriors (24 pts) with Parramatta, South Sydney, and Cowboys all on 22 points, one ahead of Manly on 21 points.

Mathematically, any of those teams could still take out the minor premiership should they get on a steak of wins in the next two months.

Adding to the drama is the fact the Titans (11th), Dolphins (12th), and Roosters (13th) are only one win out of the top eight, meaning positions can change each week depending on results.

Differentials will come into play in the race for the finals with Canberra the only team in the top eight with a negative -55 the most vulnerable.

Byes will also be crucial.

Adjusted points with two points for a bye added to the club’s total points would move Brisbane to the top of the ladder with South Sydney (who have two byes left) the big movers.

The adjusted top eight, with byes added, would look something like this: Brisbane 30, Penrith 28, Canberra 28, Sharks 26, Storm 26, South Sydney 26, Warriors 26, Parramatta 24 and the North Queensland Cowboys 24.

The Dolphins, who many doubted would win more than a few games, are still a realistic chance to create NRL history, sitting on 22 with their bye to come.

Cronulla is the competition’s top-scoring club with 457 points for the season but South Sydney lead the way in tries scored with a total of 80 four-pointers heading into round 20.

Premiership favourites Penrith lead the way in a number of key stats, including time in possession (54 percent), the best completion rate (82 percent), and field goals with six for the season.

South Sydney and Cronulla are the best at line breaks with 104 each so far, while Brisbane is the leader in tackle breaks with 685.

Penrith and South Sydney dominate most of the major team stats while Dolphins fullback Jamayne Isako is the leading point scorer with 171 followed by Cowboy’s centre Valentine Holmes (142) and surprise packet Melbourne’s Nick (142) who is ahead of the likes of Mitchell Moses and Shaun Johnson.

It all adds up to a Hitchcock-scripted finish to the minor premiership which will keep fans guessing right up until the 27th round.

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